Modelling
Integrating macroeconomic variables into behavioral models for interest rate risk measurement in the banking book
This paper proposed a nonparametric approach to decompose a macroeconomic variable into an interest-rate-correlated component and a macro-specific component.
Quant firm deploys new metric for Covid sensitivity
Los Angeles Capital debuts new factor for measuring stocks’ sensitivity to the pandemic
A positive response to negative oil prices
Overhauling pricing models could reap rewards even if prices don’t cross zero again
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Quant fund pioneer plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Covid scenarios: finding the worst worst-case
As pandemic trashes historical data, a Risk.net tie-up with Ron Dembo’s new outfit tests promise of polling
A tale of two (or three, or four) models
Performance measure based on quality of replicating portfolios outperforms ‘P&L explain’, new paper claims
Quantifying model performance
Quality of replicating portfolio is used to measure performance of a model
Two-factor Black-Karasinski pricing kernel
Analytic formulas for bond prices and forward rates are derived by expanding existing rate models
Bachelier – a strange new world for oil options
Model tuned to negative prices has implications for pricing, margining and delta hedging
Two quants use options pricing tools to model Covid-19
New tool aims to gauge wider cost of virus control measures
A new dynamic hedging model with futures
This paper proposes a new econometric model for the estimation of optimal hedge ratios (HRs): the Kalman filter error-correction model (KF–ECM).
To model the real world, quants turn to synthetic data
Future financial models will be built using artificially generated data
CME was ill-prepared for negative oil prices, FCMs say
Bourse draws criticism over timing of options model change; delay in sending key margin file
FRTB comes too late for Covid crisis
Expected shortfall would stop Basel 2.5 duplicate capital charges, but backtesting still a problem
Quants pitch in to improve pandemic models
The finance industry’s quants are trying their hand at modelling the virus and its economic impact
Covid-19 tumult is testing AI fund returns
Some ML strategies have coped well, but others began to struggle as panic mounted
Counterparty credit risk – Why data is only valuable in context
Paul Whitmore, global head of counterparty risk solutions at Fitch Solutions, explains how qualitative data can add colour and insight to quantitative metrics for assessing the creditworthiness of counterparty banks
Implementing Basel IV in Asia-Pacific – Mapping out the next steps
This webinar explores the current pain points and provides insights on Basel IV implementation in Apac, addressing the most common challenges and what it takes to transform to a Basel IV-compliant financial institution
Quants warn on credit risk in stocks
Conventional models may be missing explosion in novel exposure
Current expected credit loss procyclicality: it depends on the model
This work looks at a wide range of models to test the degree to which CECL is procyclical for different types of model.
As Covid snaps credit models, lenders turn to stress-testing
Banks enlist scenario analysis to bolster creaking default models
Energy Risk Software Rankings: A different world
Energy Risk’s Software Rankings reveal the industry’s technology preferences in a changing world
Covid transparency would soothe markets – Harvey
“Why aren’t our policy-makers sharing their models?” asks Duke University economist
Operational uncertainty – An unavoidable challenge
The transition from Libor to a new risk-free rate has revealed a number of challenges for all financial markets participants – the nature and scope of what lies ahead is vast, impacting businesses, operations and support functions. KPMG‘s global Libor…