Covid comparisons

Comparing the backtests on the S&P 500 using Risk.net’s latest set of crowdsourced stress scenarios (constructed by polling readers, and run once again in conjunction with RiskThinking.ai) and the last underlines how views have become more extreme. When Risk.net first asked participants to predict the impact of Covid in late March, the S&P was nearing a multi-year low of 2,191. Yet the range of views then – when markets were still in freefall, and central banks and governments had yet to firm up pledges of trillions of dollars in ultra-cheap credit and other support measures – was far narrower than it is now.

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