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Trump tariffs sent FX options traders on a wild ride
As US assets sold off, dealers found themselves on the front lines of a hedging scramble
How Florida’s pension plan foresaw deglobalisation and trimmed its risk
Retirement fund reduced exposure to public equities more than a year ago
JPM boosts credit loss provisions to highest levels since 2020
Allowances up to $28bn driven by worsening economic outlook
Risk data
Asia’s bond investors hesitant to buy US dip, say dealers
Insurers and pension funds have been slower to step in than usual during sell-off
HK warrant issuers optimistic on listing cost cuts
Inclusion of listing reform in second budget speech raises hopes for action on ‘expensive’ fees
Here’s what investors said about trade wars in January
A global trade war ranked third and a stock market crash fourth in Risk.net’s list of top investment risks, earlier this year. Some described how US tariffs would lead to “bimodal” outcomes – slowing growth on one hand, but with the chance of positive effects if targeted countries capitulated. Participants also worried about stock market panic in the face of new risks. “Investor confidence is going to evaporate,” predicted one.
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US Treasuries
Inside the week that shook the US Treasury market
Rates traders on the “scary” moves that almost broke the world’s safest and most liquid investment
Trump tariffs turn swap spreads into ‘pain trade’
Hedge funds bet big on Treasuries to outperform swaps. The opposite happened.
Treasury selloff challenges back-office systems, data feeds
FIS and Trading Technologies suffered downtime during peak activity
Bond rout puts pressure on UST holdings at US banks
Banks leaned heavily on mark-to-market Treasuries before April’s sell-off
Risk Quantum
Data insights, delivered daily
Risk Quantum tracks thousands of data points across hundreds of metrics from organisations that represent a cross-section of the financial system. Published daily, articles are short and broken into chunks – the facts, the context and a brief commentary – and use data visualisations to get each story across.
JPM boosts credit loss provisions to highest levels since 2020
Allowances up to $28bn driven by worsening economic outlook
Counterparty Radar
Matchmaking and benchmarking for OTC derivatives
Counterparty Radar is based on position data from around 20,000 US mutual funds and ETFs, rolled up to the manager level – it shows the OTC derivatives they have on their books, and who they traded them with, providing unique insights into an important market segment. More info
Vanguard is new kid on the CDS options block
Counterparty Radar: Passive behemoth held a quarter of reported notional among US retail funds in Q4 2024
Tariff turmoil
The end of the world, or an artificial crisis?
Bimodal tariff threat leaves investors grappling with uncertainty
Patience pays off for XVA desks in wild week of tariff swings
Dealers avoided knee-jerk reactions that could have caused credit spreads to widen further
How Trump’s trade talks may play out
SSGA’s chief geopolitical strategist on which tariffs stay in place and who blinks first in negotiations
FX liquidity ‘worse than Covid’ amid tariff volatility, dealers say
Available liquidity for single clips dropped to as low as $20 million ahead of tariff pause
For US Treasury algos, dealers get with the program
Four banks now offer execution algos on Bloomberg, with plans to go further, faster
Bank regulation
Bowman won’t commit to stress-testing the tariff shock
Nominated Fed vice-chair stonewalls calls to run ad hoc scenario similar to 2020 Covid test
European Commission changes tune on proposed FRTB multiplier
Banks fear departure from original diversification factor undermines case for permanent relief
Trading desks want regulators to face down the NMRF monster
Rule-makers in Australia and the European Union are open to changes to the unpopular FRTB test
CFTC’s Doge-inspired drive to enforcement may fall short
Lawyers doubt guidance on rewards for self-reporting goes far enough
Op risk benchmarking
Our new research service compares op risk practices at financial institutions – from staffing to AI safeguards, key controls to board reporting packs.
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