Original research
Calibration of rating grades to point-in-time and through-the-cycle levels of probability of default
The paper argues for the need for and importance of the dual calibration of a probability of default (PD) model (ie, calibration to both point-in-time and through-the-cycle PD levels.)
Rainbows and transforms: semi-analytic formulas
In this paper the authors show how the techniques introduced by Hurd and Zhou in 2010 can be used to derive a pricing framework for rainbow options by using the joint characteristic function of the logarithm of the underlying assets.
Branching diffusions with jumps, and valuation with systemic counterparties
This paper extends the branching diffusion Monte Carlo method of Henry-Labordère et al to the case of parabolic partial differential equations with mixed local–nonlocal analytic nonlinearities.
Extreme value theory for operational risk in insurance: a case study
This study aims to test the sufficiency of the solvency capital requirement approach for calculating operational risk using the standard formula as defined in Solvency II.
A review of tree-based approaches to solving forward–backward stochastic differential equations
This paper looks at ways of solving (decoupled) forward–backward stochastic differential equations numerically using regression trees.
Evaluation of backtesting techniques on risk models with different horizons
In this study different value-at-risk (VaR) models are analyzed under different estimation approaches (filtered historical simulation, extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation) and backtested with different techniques.
A market scoring mechanism for trading of German electricity futures
This paper present a novel systematic commodity trading model utilizing a time series momentum strategy.
The role of management accounting practices in operational risk management: the case of Palestinian commercial banks
This paper follows an exploratory, descriptive approach to investigate the role that management accounting practices plays in managing operational risks in the Palestinian commercial banking sector.
Strong-hand conjecture: agent-based numerical simulation
Following the example of the Kim–Markowitz model, this study adopts similar mechanisms of market operation to perform computer simulations based on agent modeling on the financial market, where shares of one company and a bank account are available …
Forecasting natural gas price trends using random forest and support vector machine classifiers
In this paper, different machine learning approaches are applied to forecasting future yearly price trends in the natural gas Title Transfer Facility market in the Netherlands.
Backtesting of a probability of default model in the point-in-time–through-the-cycle context
This paper presents a backtesting framework for a probability of default model, assuming that the latter is calibrated to both point-in-time and through-the-cycle levels.
Modeling nonmaturing deposits: a framework for interest and liquidity risk management
This paper presents a generic framework for modeling nonmaturing deposits that can be used by banks for interest and liquidity risk management, funds transfer pricing and dynamic balance sheet management.
Time-varying tail dependence networks of financial institutions
In this paper time-varying tail dependence networks are constructed to investigate the complex interdependencies in the financial system.
Reinvestigating international crude oil market risk spillovers
This paper develops a copula-GARCH-MIDAS model to estimate the joint probability distribution of multivariate variables, and then derives CoVaR-type risk measures.
Bayesian nonparametric covariance estimation with noisy and nonsynchronous asset prices
This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method to estimate the ex post covariance matrix from high-frequency data.
An artificial neural network representation of the SABR stochastic volatility model
In this paper the universal approximation theorem of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is applied to the stochastic alpha beta rho (SABR) stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations.
The impact of compounding on bond pricing with alternative reference rates
This paper looks at the impact of compounding on zero-coupon bond prices by considering the short rate when it follows a Gaussian diffusion process or a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion process.
Systemic risk of the Chinese stock market based on the mobility measures of the marginal expected shortfall
This paper applies the dynamic mixture copula model method and proposes a mobility measure of the marginal expected shortfall to depict the changing systemic risk in China’s mainland stock market and Hong Kong’s stock market.
A prudent loss given default estimation for mortgages. II
This paper introduces a prudent methodology to accurately estimates loss given default for mortgage portfolios and to stress test those portfolios effectively.
Forecasting stock market volatility: an asymmetric conditional autoregressive range mixed data sampling (ACARR-MIDAS) model
This paper proposes an extension of the classical CARR model, the ACARR-MIDAS model, to model volatility and capture the volatility asymmetry as well as volatility persistence.
An examination of the tail contribution to distortion risk measures
This paper reports a method for analyzing the influence of the tail in calculations of distortion risk measures.
Risk disclosures in annual reports: the role of nonfinancial companies listed on the Athens stock exchange
This study analyzes the risks disclosed by all nonfinancial companies listed on the Athens stock exchange by undertaking content analysis of their annual reports during the period 2005–11.