Original research
The impact of end-user market integration and the smart grid on electricity retailers in the Nordic region
With the help of a mixed complementarity problem formulation that describes a simplified market setting with two competing retailers, this paper analyzes the impact of the pending market changes on electricity retailers’ price markup and profit.
Estimating marginal effects of key factors that influence wholesale electricity demand and price distributions in Texas via quantile variable selection methods
Using a large data set from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, this study uses quantile regressions and attendant variable selection methods to choose the most important factors that influence demand and price distributions; subsequently, the…
A shrinking horizon optimal liquidation framework with lower partial moments criteria
In this paper, a novel quasi-multiperiod model for optimal position liquidation in the presence of both temporary and permanent market impact is proposed. Two main features distinguish the proposed approach from its alternatives.
Empirical analysis of oil risk-minimizing portfolios: the DCC–GARCH–MODWT approach
This paper strives to analyze hedging strategies between Brent oil and six other het- erogeneous assets – American ten-year bonds, US dollars, gold, natural gas futures, corn futures, and Europe, Australasia and Far East exchange-traded funds (EAFE- ETFs…
Value-at-risk in the European energy market: a comparison of parametric, historical simulation and quantile regression value-at-risk
This paper examines a set of value-at-risk (VaR) models and their ability to appropriately describe and capture price-change risk in the European energy market.
Validation of index and benchmark assignment: adequacy of capturing tail risk
This paper provides practical recommendations for the validation of risk models under the Targeted Review of Internal Models (TRIM).
A simulation-based model for optimal demand response load shifting: a case study for the Texas power market
This paper describes a case study of analyzing DR load-shifting strategies for a retail electric provider for the Texas (ERCOT) market using a Monte Carlo simulation with stochastic loads and settlement prices.
The impact of the cross-shareholding network on extreme price movements: evidence from China
By using information about the ownership structure of listed companies from 2004 to 2016, the authors construct the cross-shareholding network for each year and examine the effects of the network position of a firm on extreme price movement.
Currency risk in foreign currency accounts for small and medium-sized businesses
This paper estimates the currency exposure before and after the hedging of active foreign currency (FC) accounts, using stochastic models for spot exchange rates and cashflow movements.
The Chebyshev method for the implied volatility
In this paper, the authors propose a bivariate interpolation of the implied volatility surface based on Chebyshev polynomials. This yields a closed-form approximation of the implied volatility, which is easy to implement and to maintain.
One-dimensional Markov-functional models driven by a non-Gaussian driver
The aim of this paper is to move away from a Gaussian assumption and to provide new algorithms that can be used to implement a Markov-functional model driven by a more general class of one-dimensional diffusion processes.
Brent crude oil spot and futures prices: structural break insights
This study focuses on the analysis of long-run and short-run relationships between Brent crude oil spot and futures prices during the first Gulf War (1990–91) and the global financial crisis.
Estimation of value-at-risk for conduct risk losses using pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo
The authors propose a model for conduct risk losses, in which conduct risk losses are characterized by having a small number of extremely large losses (perhaps only one) with more numerous smaller losses.
Cyber risk management: an actuarial point of view
This paper points out the peculiarities of cyber insurance contracts compared with the classical nonlife insurance contracts from both the insurer’s and the insured’s perspectives. The main actuarial principles that are fundamental to any valuation in a…
Costs of capital under credit risk
In cost-of-capital computations, credit risk is only taken into consideration at the level of the debt beta approach. We show that applications of the debt beta approach in company valuation suffer from unrealistic assumptions about the market index and…
Basel risk weight functions and forward-looking expected credit losses
The authors establish that the combination of lifetime ECL and the Basel Capital Adequacy Framework, which relies on a one-year horizon, results in capital overestimation. Alongside this finding, and in order to alleviate the problem, they propose two…
Credit valuation adjustment wrong-way risk in a Gaussian copula model
In this paper, we present an analytical expression for CVA with WWR under the assumption of the lognormally distributed trade value.
Measuring expected shortfall under semi-parametric expected shortfall approaches: a case study of selected Southern European/Mediterranean countries
In this paper, the authors investigate the applicability of semi-parametric approaches for estimating expected shortfall.
Crash risk exposure, diversification and cost of equity capital: evidence from a natural experiment in China
Based on a broad sample of Chinese listed firms for the period 2001–10, this study investigates the effect of stock price crash risk exposure on the cost of equity capital and uses the split share structure reform as an exogenous shock to test whether…
Backtesting expected shortfall: a simple recipe?
In this paper, the authors introduce a new ES backtesting framework based on the duality between coherent risk measures and scale-invariant performance measures.
The impact of enterprise risk management on the performance of companies in transition countries: Serbia case study
In this paper, seven hypotheses are defined, on the basis of which a theoretical model is developed to examine how different sources of enterprise risk affect the operational performance of Serbian companies and their risk of losing market position.
Quantification of the estimation risk inherent in loss distribution approach models
In this paper, the authors contribute to the measurement of model risk by focusing on the quantification of estimation risk.
Debt and the oil industry: analysis on the firm and production level
This paper analyzes the relationship between debt and the production decisions of companies active in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States.