Original research
Forecasting corporate defaults in the German stock market
In this paper, the authors estimate and test several default risk models using new and unique data on corporate defaults in the German stock market.
BV–VPIN: Measuring the impact of order flow toxicity and liquidity on international equity markets
The authors analyze the impact of different values of the VBS and sample size applied as inputs in a BV–VPIN model based on the US market in order to ascertain the optimal criteria for application across all other countries in our data set.
Improving the Brazilian electricity market: how to replace the centralized dispatch by decentralized market-based bidding
This paper proposes replacing the Energy Reallocation Mechanism with a bid- based short-term market called the virtual reservoir model.
The Iberian electricity market: analysis of the risk premium in an illiquid market
This paper analyzes the risk premium in the base-load monthly futures contracts traded on the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) between July 1, 2006 and March 31, 2017.
An analysis of intraday market response to crude oil inventory shocks
This paper investigates the intraday market activity of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures around the release of the US Energy Intelligence Agency (EIA) report, looking at how prices respond to inventory shocks.
Estimation window strategies for value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting
This paper analyzes the impact of different estimation window strategies, including structural breaks and forecast combinations, on forecasting common risk measures such as VaR and ES.
Risk averse fractional trading using the current drawdown
In this paper, the fractional trading ansatz of money management, also called growth optimal trading, is reconsidered. Special attention is paid to the chance and risk parts of the goal function for the related optimization problem.
Shrunk volatility value-at-risk: an application on US balanced portfolios
In this paper, the authors adopt a new method of predicting VaR, to estimate balanced portfolios’ VaR.
Evaluating the risk performance of online peer-to-peer lending platforms in China
The objective of this paper is to select effective risk indicators and thus establish a risk index system of P2P platforms so as to evaluate the risk performance of these platforms in China.
Kriging metamodels and experimental design for Bermudan option pricing
This paper investigates two new strategies for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems in the regression Monte Carlo (RMC) framework.
Importance sampling for jump–diffusions via cross-entropy
This paper develops efficient importance sampling schemes for a class of jump–diffusion processes that are commonly used for modeling stock prices.
Modeling dependent risk factors with CreditRisk+
In this paper, an extension of the CreditRisk+ model, called the mixed vector model, is proposed.
Freeriding on liquidity in the Colombian large-value payment system
The functioning of a large-value payment system (LVPS) can be affected when some of its participants intentionally decide to delay their payments until they can fund them with payments received from other participants. This payment strategy, known as the…
A CCP is a CCP is a CCP
This paper discusses the many differences between CCPs and banks as well as the significance of these differences.
Operational risk measurement beyond the loss distribution approach: an exposure-based methodology
In this paper, the authors present an alternative quantification technique, so-called exposure-based operational risk (EBOR) models, which aim to replace historical severity curves by measures of current exposures and use event frequencies based on…
Distortion risk measures for nonnegative multivariate risks
In this paper, the authors present a way to address multivariate distortion risk measures and give some examples of distortion functions and distributions where the final expression has a closed form.
The predictability implied by consumption-based asset-pricing models: a review of the theory and empirical evidence
This paper examines whether two well-known models, Campbell and Cochrane’s habit model and Bansal and Yaron’s long-run risks model, can produce significant return predictability.
Does the impact of exchange-traded funds flows on commodities prices involve stockpiling as a signature? An empirical investigation
This paper examines the relation between the flows into the three main commodity index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the prices, inventory and term structure of four energy and twelve US-traded agricultural contracts.
Measuring system-wide resilience of central counterparties
This paper describes the three components needed to simultaneously stress clearing members and CCPs across markets: scenario generation, evaluation of the profit and loss (P&L) of clearing member portfolios for each scenario, and default of clearing…
An operational risk capital model based on the loss distribution approach
In this paper, the author constructs a capital model for operational risk based on the observation that operational losses can, under a certain dimensional transformation, converge into a single, universal distribution.
Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle and the housing bubble
In this paper, we explore the role of consumer risk appetite in the initiation of credit cycles and as an early trigger of the US mortgage crisis.