Original research
Yield curve fitting with artificial intelligence: a comparison of standard fitting methods with artificial intelligence algorithms
In this paper, the author expands standard yield curve fitting techniques to artificial intelligence methods.
Incorporating volatility in tolerance intervals for pair-trading strategy and backtesting
This paper incorporates volatility forecasting via the exponentially weighted moving average model into traditional tolerance limits for pair-trading strategies, and illustrates how the proposed method helps uncover arbitrage opportunities via the daily…
On the mathematical modeling of point-in-time and through-the-cycle probability of default estimation/ validation
In this paper, the authors focus on PD estimation and validation. They provide the mathematical modeling for both point-in-time (PIT) and through-the-cycle (TTC) PD estimation, and discuss their relationship and application in our banking system.
Ensemble models in forecasting financial markets
In this paper, the authors study an evolutionary framework for the optimization of various types of neural network structures and parameters.
What kind of payments settle in a real time gross settlement system? The case of Norges Bank’s settlement system (NBO)
A good understanding of the kinds of payments that settle in a central bank real time gross settlement (RTGS) system is useful for both overseers and operators, but no study exists that attempts to systematically categorize all payments settling in an…
Beta hedging: performance measures, momentum weighting and rebalancing effects
In this paper, the authors discuss the various performance measures of beta hedging and offer a new synthetic criterion that accounts for both risk-adjusted returns and losses of trading strategy.
Quantification of model risk in stress testing and scenario analysis
In this paper, the author's aim is to empirically analyze the numerical quantification of model risk, yielding exact buffers in currency amounts (for a given model uncertainty).
Range-based volatility forecasting: an extended conditional autoregressive range model
This paper proposes an extended conditional autoregressive range (EXCARR) model to describe the range-based volatility dynamics of financial assets.
The implications of value-at-risk and short-selling restrictions for portfolio manager performance
This paper provides a framework to analyze the performance of a portfolio manager under a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint, in a Markowitz setup.
Who pays? Who gains? Central counterparty resource provision in the post-Pittsburgh world
In this paper, the authors develop a conceptual framework to examine whether the regulatory changes since the Pittsburgh Summit could be a catalyst for reconsidering the structure of clearing houses.
Fast stochastic forward sensitivities in Monte Carlo simulations using stochastic automatic differentiation (with applications to initial margin valuation adjustments)
In this paper, the author applies stochastic (backward) automatic differentiation to calculate stochastic forward sensitivities.
ε-monotone Fourier methods for optimal stochastic control in finance
In this paper, the authors give a preprocessing step for Fourier methods that involves projecting the Green’s function onto the set of linear basis functions.
Are lenders using risk-based pricing in the Italian consumer loan market? The effect of the 2008 crisis
This paper analyzes whether in Italy the price of consumer loans is based on borrower-specific credit risk.
The utility of Basel III rules on excessive violations of internal risk models
In this paper, the author looks at the efficacy of risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indexes, and calculates both the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES) on each of these data sets as well as on…
Pricing fast-responding electric storage assets in the presence of negative prices and price spikes: a simulation-and-regression approach
This study focuses on the use of batteries for real-time power trading and proposes a simulation-and-regression-based valuation model.
Second-order risk of alternative risk parity strategies
In this paper, the authors provide theoretical and empirical evidence of the contribution of second-order risk to realized volatility for alternative risk parity strategies.
A pairwise local correlation model
In this paper, the authors develop a new local correlation model that uses a generic function 'g' to describe the correlation between all asset–asset pairs for a basket of underlyings.
An adaptive Filon quadrature for stochastic volatility models
In this paper, the author describes a simple adaptive Filon method that performs better and more accurately than various popular alternatives for pricing options under the Heston model.
American and exotic option pricing with jump diffusions and other Lévy processes
This paper develops a general methodology for pricing early exercise and exotic financial options by extending the recently developed PROJ method.
Reducing margin procyclicality at central counterparties
This paper studies the effect of less procyclical margin models on cleared volumes and risk taking in a stylized CCP.
The centrally cleared interest rate derivatives market: how are clients changing the risk perspective?
This paper analyzes counterparty relationships within both direct (house) and client clearing in the interest rate derivatives market in the European Union.
