Prediction markets
Perps extend the menu to tempt TradFi diners
Expiry-less futures are spreading from bitcoin into gold, equities and FX. Institutions are watching, not buying
Hard day’s night: Kalshi’s round-the-clock enforcement head
Robert DeNault wants market-leading tech to handle up to 40 insider trading cases at a time
Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
Liquidity on Kalshi, Polymarket ‘too thin’ for institutional use
Patchy trade flows cause outsize market impact for financial events, research from Risk.net shows
Is alt data betting on prediction markets?
While offering a rich source of new data, legal uncertainties remain
The quiet force steering prediction platforms to regulation
Former Cantor Futures president Richard Jaycobs warns on growth prospects for ‘zero-sum’ market
AI governance rules coming soon, says CFTC chair
Selig doesn’t want to stifle innovation, but says trading or advice algos will need guardrails
Prediction markets can be a canary in the coal mine
Prices of contracts on the likes of Polymarket can act as signals for risk management and hedging, says risk expert
How Optiver is harnessing prediction markets
Isda AGM: Market-maker doesn’t trade event contracts, but it is using them to price other instruments
Don’t mention the rules: the fight against prediction market abuse
For the CFTC to regulate new venues effectively, it must first redefine insider trading
CFTC wants to regulate prediction markets. Is it up to the task?
Former officials echo state gambling authorities’ concerns over agency’s ability to police betting risks
Main Street to Wall Street: Kalshi’s bid to go beyond sports bets
Institutional head Andy Ross’s strategy for drawing in investors and charging for ‘wisdom-of-crowds’
Ice’s Sprecher: institutional prediction bets ‘a matter of time’
Longer-term vision for ‘niche’ energy event contracts may be aided by recent Polymarket tie-up
Could prediction markets go wholesale? Exchanges think so
Some venues are exploring demand for institution-focused product; others say wholesale users can play in retail space