Forecasting
Q&A: Ron Dembo on crowd-spotting black swans
Veteran quant argues large groups are better at gauging extreme uncertainty than small teams of experts
What quants can learn from the Covid crisis
More nowcasting, less backtesting, and strategies that adapt to new regimes: a manifesto from Lipton and López de Prado
Measuring economic cycles in data
This paper determines if enough data is available for forecasting or stress testing, a better measure of data length is required.
CECL muddies stress tests for US banks
Accounting forecasts differ from Fed’s CCAR scenarios; banks seek middle way to avoid upfront capital hit
Treasurers turn to AI in bid for sharper forecasting
Wider automation could usher in future of ‘hands-free hedging’, but obstacles lurk in data standards and sharing
Credit impairment charge up 22% at StanChart
Higher provisions taken, even as number of stage three loans drops
CECL models may leave banks ill-prepared for next downturn
Mortgage backtest study shows some loan-loss models miss the mark
Ready or not – a low-carbon economy is coming
Government and business must avert disorderly move away from fossil fuels, says Geneva Association’s Maryam Golnaraghi
Quant funds look to AI to master correlations
Machine learning shows promise in grouping assets better, predicting regime shifts
At CIBC, update to loan-loss model lifts credit provisions 38%
Darker economic outlook justified a shift in ECL model weightings
When the data’s not there, expert-led models could help
Missing data is a problem. Expert elicitation taps the knowledge of many, say consultants
Sandbar's focus on idiosyncratic factors sets it apart from its peers in equity market‑neutral
With investors sometimes struggling to find hedge funds that deliver uncorrelated, consistent returns, Sandbar Asset Management stands out from its peers. Its success in running an equity market-neutral strategy is a reflection of its founder and chief…
Cat risk: why forecasting climate change is a disaster
Forecasters are poles apart on climate-driven catastrophes; insurers fear worse ahead
When climate risk starts to bite
Energy firms under increased pressure to assess physical climate risk
Forecasting value-at-risk
Alvin Stroyny and Tim Wilding build a dynamic risk framework for multi-asset global portfolios
House of the year, Singapore: OCBC
Asia Risk Awards 2019
Rating migrations of US financial institutions: are different outcomes equivalent?
This study employs a competing risks approach to examine the rating migrations of US financial institutions (FIs) during the period 1984–2006.
A tech-driven transformation
A panel of experts explores how greater collaboration between risk and finance teams can garner significant benefits and add value, how technological innovation is making the regulatory landscape more complicated to navigate and produce transformative…
Risk and finance – Better together
Changing regulations and new accounting standards are creating enormous challenges for financial organisations. Thorsten Hein, principal product marketing manager, risk research and quantitative solutions at SAS, explores why, to successfully meet these…
One size does not fit all – Adapting to meet investment goals
Guillaume Arnaud, global head of quantitative investment strategies (QIS), and Sandrine Ungari, head of cross-asset quantitative research at Societe Generale, explore the benefits of QIS for investors, why flexibility is crucial for investors to meet…
Risk premia strategies – Lessons learned for the future
After a difficult 2018, investors are increasingly wary of risk premia, concerned that factors leading to underperformance might be a recurring problem. Imene Moussa, executive director at UBS, clarifies this issue
