Cat risk: why forecasting climate change is a disaster

Forecasters are poles apart on climate-driven catastrophes; insurers fear worse ahead

Risk 1119 In depth Mark Long nbillustration.co.uk
Mark Long, nbillustration.co.uk

The year is 1987. The worst storm in centuries is about to sideswipe the UK with hurricane-strength winds. Notoriously – folklorically – BBC meteorologist Michael Fish addresses a viewer’s concerns: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you’re watching: don’t worry, there isn’t.”

The storm cost the insurance industry an estimated £2 billion ($2.5 billion). Although Fish claimed his comment was taken out of context,

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