Q&A: Ron Dembo on crowd-spotting black swans

Veteran quant argues large groups are better at gauging extreme uncertainty than small teams of experts


This article accompanies Risk.net’s project on crowdsourced scenario generation.

The future isn’t what it used to be – at least, not if judged by the financial industry’s efforts at modelling it.

Time and again, the standard method of estimating losses by looking at what has happened before – imagining the future by selectively replaying the past – has been found wanting.

Covid-19 is just the latest example. For every day that passes with the world’s largest economies under lockdown, the

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Risk.net? View our subscription options

Most read articles loading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Risk.net account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here