CECL models may leave banks ill-prepared for next downturn
Mortgage backtest study shows some loan-loss models miss the mark
Some models used by US lenders to set loan-loss provisions under new accounting rules fail to produce accurate estimates of credit risk during economic downturns, research reveals. The study backtested six modelling methods with mortgage data from the financial crisis of 2008 and showed that most models were unable to equip banks with appropriate levels of reserves.
The results raise questions
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
More on Risk management
Most dealers run central XVA desks, but remits vary
Risk Benchmarking: Many banks struggle to track XVA costs and share of derivatives compute
EU banks in India cut contingency costs after clearing deal
Esma MoU with two Indian regulators lifts threat to direct clearing for BNP, SocGen and Deutsche
Big banks look to XVA desks to crush counterparty exposures
Risk Benchmarking: Two-thirds of global dealers run routine optimisation, compared with just 13% of smaller players
Regulators must think bigger to tackle tech risks, says Hong Kong SFC
Leung warns AI adoption and recent cyber scares show new threats require global co-operation
Investment workflows move beyond the trade
J.P. Morgan experts reveal how Vida’s digital tools enhance transparency, analytics, portfolio oversight and investment lifecycle management
Europe expects FRTB to bite on XVA hedges
Risk Benchmarking: One-third of European dealers fear new market risk rules will have major effect on hedges
Non-bank dealers urge rethink on FICC default fund reshuffle
Separating margin will cut bank capital, but non-banks warn they face disproportionate risk-sharing
Why a hybrid approach works best for AI in credit risk modelling
AI helps models look beyond quarterly reports, but CRO says governance curtails full automation
