Credit cycle
Europe’s regulators play ‘time the downturn’ with CCyB
Indicators justify hikes in countercyclical capital buffer, but shock-driven recession looms large
Europe’s countercyclical buffers buck recession trends
Almost half of EBU’s members have set out CCyB hikes; five plan two or more before mid-2023
Looming slowdown casts doubt on countercyclical capital
Confusion over use of buffers makes bankers wonder if concept will ever be successful
Covid-19 and the credit cycle: 2020 revisited and 2021 outlook
This study continues the author’s examination and forecasts as to the impact of Covid-19 on the US credit cycle after one and a half years since the pandemic first began.
Building forward-looking scenarios: why you’re doing it wrong
Rick Bookstaber and colleagues describe a process for constructing effective scenarios
Finding the corporate credit cycle for IFRS 9
Decomposing corporate default rates helps identify credit cycles
Altman: mega-bankruptcy wave coming
Credit conditions were worsening before Covid, research finds
Covid-19 and the credit cycle
The Covid-19 health crisis has dramatically affected just about every aspect of the economy, including the transition from a record long benign credit cycle to a stressed one, with still uncertain dimensions. This paper seeks to assess the credit climate…
Recent defaults lead to record credit derivatives payouts
CDS auctions have yielded historically low recovery rates this year, meaning swap sellers have had to pay more than normal
CECL models may leave banks ill-prepared for next downturn
Mortgage backtest study shows some loan-loss models miss the mark
Impairment charge up 58% at BBVA
Write-offs and higher provisions take big bite out of bank’s income
Credit model update holds down loss provisions at Deutsche
German lender saved €167 million through model refinements
Denmark, Slovakia hike countercyclical buffers
Eight countries have increased their CCyB year-to-date
At large US banks, credit loss reserves up 12% in Q3
JP Morgan took $1.5 billion of provisions in the third quarter alone
Credit loss provisions at US G-Sibs 14% lower in Q2
PCLs total $4.8 billion at end-June
Darker credit forecast forces Deutsche’s PCLs up to €161m
Provisions for credit losses rise from €94m in the year-ago quarter
Capital One shrinks credit-loss provisions by 21%
Provisions in Q2 2019 took 23% bite out of the bank's $5.7 billion revenues
Citi loan-loss provisions build to $2.1bn
Credit reserve ramp up pushes PLLs higher
Fixing the roof while the sun – wait, is that rain?
The Fed is split on whether to apply a countercyclical buffer. But so is everyone else
Double jeopardy: CCAR and the countercyclical buffer
Some US regulators want to hike capital while times are good; banks say Fed’s stress test already does
At US G-Sibs, loan-loss reserves hit $5.6 billion in Q1
Wells Fargo’s PCLs climb 62% quarter-on-quarter
US G-Sibs hike loan-loss provisions by $737m
Five banks increased PCLs in the fourth quarter of 2018, with JP Morgan leading the way
AIIB risk chief on steering China’s World Bank rival
Martin Kimmig on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s challenge of overcoming patchy credit data