Macroeconomics
Using payments data to nowcast macroeconomic variables during the onset of Covid-19
Economic prediction during a crisis is challenging because of the unprecedented economic impact of such an event, which increases the unreliability of traditionally used linear models that employ lagged data. The authors help to address this challenge by…
Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle
The author assesses the quantitative effects of the recent proposal for more robust bank capital adequacy.
Loan-loss provisions take a smaller bite out of EU banks in Q3
Set-asides fell 57% quarter on quarter
Decomposing supply shocks in the US electricity industry: evidence from a time-varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression model
This paper investigates spillovers between electricity supply shocks and US growth, using monthly data from forty-eight US states from January 2001 to September 2016, and employs a novel strategy for electricity supply shocks based on a time-varying…
Covid scenarios, pt II: apocalypse how?
Second crowd-sourced scenario exercise reveals polarised views in equities and FX
To make sense of complex systems, send in the agents
Standard quant models cannot comprehend a radically complex reality, writes Jean-Phillippe Bouchaud
Stuart Lewis, Deutsche’s survivor, confronts Covid-19
CRO talks loan reserves, VAR breaches, and the lessons of a lurid past
Discover, Capital One loans ravaged by Fed stress test
Credit card losses especially pronounced among regional US lenders
ICAAP/ILAAP – Unlocking business value from capital and liquidity assessment
Regulators consider banks’ internal capital adequacy and assessment process (ICAAP) and internal liquidity adequacy assessment process (ILAAP) important tools in managing risk. The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) updated guidance – which came into effect…
EU’s 2020 stress tests are toughest to date
Real GDP projected to contract –4.3% over three-year scenario horizon
Sovereign spreads and Target2 anomalies
Widening risk imbalances between eurozone member states threaten monetary union, says Italian regulator
Fixing the roof while the sun – wait, is that rain?
The Fed is split on whether to apply a countercyclical buffer. But so is everyone else
Credit portfolio stress testing using transition matrixes
In this paper, the authors propose a new methodology for modeling credit transition probability matrixes (TPMs) using macroeconomic factors.
Models need longer datasets to handle economic cycles – research
Decades, not years, of credit losses required for accurate risk modelling, argues expert
Can nowcasting unlock factor timing?
Fulcrum Asset Management is running tests to see if fresher data can help improve factor allocations
Asset managers brave patchy data to nowcast China’s GDP
Techniques include using many datasets, relying on proxies and continually reviewing models
Canadian Big Five hoard reserves as credit outlook decays
Four of the five largest Canadian lenders saw provisions rise, with BMO the only outlier
Fed economists float new way to project op risk losses
Researchers suggest combining firm’s size with loss history to best predict losses under CCAR
Buy-side modellers seek ‘Holy Grail’ of investing
When stocks and bonds fell in tandem this year, it sparked a debate about whether a lasting regime shift could be predicted
BMO shrinks loan-loss provisions as US outlook improves
US provisions for credit losses drop from C$110 million to C$44 million year-on-year
The Fed’s heavy hand on economic equality
Monetary policy and bank regulations contribute to widening US wealth gap
Ex-Fed trader Coffey on macro risks and VAR
Myopic models are creating feedback loops, warns founder of new macro firm Avoca
Optimal investment and financing with macroeconomic risk and loan guarantees
This paper considers an entrepreneur who has no assets in place but possesses an option to invest in a project incurring a lump-sum investment cost, of which a fraction must be financed by entering into an equity-for-guarantee swap.