Erste sees provisions rising fourfold in gas embargo scenario

Vienna-based bank wargamed for an unlikely but devastating halt to Russian gas shipments

Erste Group is considering all possible scenarios in case of a full-blown energy crisis in Europe as a result of a complete stop to Russian gas shipments – a nightmare outcome that could push the cost of risk four times above guidance.

Under management’s estimates, a full halt to deliveries of gas from Russia – amid an economic tit for tat with Europe following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February – would constrain GDP growth to an average of just 1.4% in 2022 across the bank’s seven main

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