Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (Garch)
Study of correlation impact on credit default swap margin using a GARCH–DCC-copula framework
In this paper, the authors establish generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–dynamic conditional correlation (GARCH–DCC) and constant conditional correlation (CCC) copula model frameworks to study time-varying correlation among credit…
Forecasting value-at-risk
Alvin Stroyny and Tim Wilding build a dynamic risk framework for multi-asset global portfolios
Recursive estimation of the exponentially weighted moving average model
The aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to introduce two recursive estimation algorithms suitable for the EWMA process that are applicable for routine volatility predictions, and (ii) to investigate their prediction ability by comparing them with other…
Parameter variation and the components of natural gas price volatility
This paper models natural gas returns explicitly, allowing for market participants to learn over time and to react differently to present changes in economic variables. This learning and adaptation, and the attendant parameter uncertainty, constitutes…
Range-based volatility forecasting: an extended conditional autoregressive range model
This paper proposes an extended conditional autoregressive range (EXCARR) model to describe the range-based volatility dynamics of financial assets.
The Garch linear SDE: explicit formulas and the pricing of a quanto CDS
A new closed-form approximation is applied to quanto CDS pricing
A comprehensive evaluation of value-at-risk models and a comparison of their performance in emerging markets
This paper aims to evaluate the performance of different value-at-risk (VaR) calculation methods, allowing the authors to identify models that are valid for use in emerging markets.
Optimal hedge ratios based on Markov-switching dynamic copula models
In this paper, the authors combine MS dynamic copulas with the skewed t SV model to study the optimal hedge ratios of portfolios.
Impact of D-vine structure on risk estimation
In this paper, a sensitivity analysis using pair–copula decomposition of multivariate dependency models is performed on estimates of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).
The CoCVaR approach: systemic risk contribution measurement
In this paper, the authors propose a measure for systemic risk, CoCVaR, the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being in financial distress.
Estimation risk for value-at-risk and expected shortfall
This paper provides a detailed analysis of the relationship between approximate VaR (ES) and exact VaR (ES) by finding a linear regression model in which the response variable is the approximate VaR (ES) and the explanatory variable is the exact VaR (ES)…
A vine copula–GARCH approach to corporate exposure management
This paper applies vine copulas with GARCH marginals to the problem of capturing asset dependence and tail dynamics for currency and commodity exposures commonly found in portfolios of global corporates.
A vine copula–GARCH approach to corporate exposure management
This paper applies vine copulas with GARCH marginals to the problem of capturing asset dependence and tail dynamics for currency and commodity exposures commonly found in portfolios of global corporates.
Are the GIPS sovereign debt markets efficient during a crisis?
This paper aims to analyze the efficiency of the Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish (ie, GIPS) sovereign debt markets during crises: in essence, the recent global financial and sovereign debt crises
Time-varying beta and the global financial crisis: evidence from Chinese and Indian firms
This paper empirically investigates the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 on the time-varying beta of twenty firms from China and India.
A new bootstrap test for multiple assets joint risk testing
In this paper, a novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models.
On the role of structural breaks in identifying the dynamic conditional linkages between stock and commodity markets
In this paper, the authors explore the time-varying linkages between two strategic commodities covering the energy sector (crude oil and natural gas) and the QE Al Rayan Islamic Index over the period March 15, 2011–December 25, 2014.
Scaling by the square-root-of-time rule: an empirical investigation using five market indexes
This paper analyzes five composite stock indexes to determine the different behaviors of scaling across markets.
The convenience yield implied in the European natural gas markets: the impact of storage and weather
This paper aims to determine the convenience yield implied in the European natural gas markets by investigating driving factors and according dynamics.
Testing value-at-risk models in emerging markets during crises: a case study on South Eastern European countries
This paper examines the applicability of a wide range of VaR models in emerging markets, focusing on South Eastern European countries.
Evaluating the performance of the skewed distributions to forecast value-at-risk in the global financial crisis
This paper models the tail behavior of daily returns and forecasting VaR in order to evaluate the performance of several skewed and symmetric distributions.
Risk model validation for BRICS countries: a value-at-risk, expected shortfall and extreme value theory approach
The authors of this paper employ value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as risk measures to assess the competency of several volatility models, based on the stock indexes of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)…