Engle: rise in geopolitical risks may be overestimated

Risk USA: Nobel laureate’s new ‘Geovol’ model suggests geopolitical risk no higher than during past 20 years

Robert Engle

From tariff spats to terrorist threats, geopolitical risk is a persistent driver of securities prices and financial markets. But according to Robert Engle – the NYU Stern economist who won the Nobel prize for his work on measuring volatility – market-watchers may be overestimating the impact of global tensions.

Giving the keynote address at Risk USA on November 5, Engle defined geopolitical risk as “politics which moves markets – in ways we may not have good predictive models for”.

“The

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