Technical paper
Bringing credit portfolio modelling to maturity
Michael Barco shows how to perform mark-to-market credit portfolio modelling by extending the well-known saddle-point technique, introducing spread and recovery rate volatility. He then tests his results on a fictitious portfolio, showing how asset…
Calculating transfer risk using Monte Carlo
Marco van der Burgt constructs a model of emerging market transfer risk based on a country’s foreign exchange reserves that is combined with facility-dependent risk factors that determine counterparty exposure in the event of a moratorium. He then…
Mark up the scorecard
Sergio Scandizzo and Roberto Setola explore the application of a scorecard approach to the measurement of operational risk, assessing both its reliability as a risk-management tool and the practicalities of its implementation.
Dissecting risk
New frontiers
Benchmarking asset correlations
Basel II stipulates that the asset correlation to be used in calibration of obligor risk weights is20%. Here, Alfred Hamerle, Thilo Liebig and Daniel Rösch use a parametric model to empirically obtain asset correlations from a large database of…
Economic capital – how much do you really need?
Economic capital is becoming the language of risk. While market, credit and operational risk have different determinants and use different methodologies, the levels of risk can all be summarised in a common dimension – the amount of economic capital…
Understanding the expected loss debate
The final draft of the new global Accord on bank regulatory capital – Basel II – has been delayed. A critical and unresolved issue is whether banks should include expected losses in their measure of credit risk. The IMF's Paul Kupiec reports on efforts…
The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions
Ratings-based models are widely used by firms making their own capital decisions and by policy-makers designing regulatory capital requirements. By ignoring fluctuations in spreads for given rating categories, the currentgeneration of ratings-based…
All your hedges in one basket
Leif Andersen, Jakob Sidenius and Susanta Basu present new techniques for single-tranche CDO sensitivity and hedge ratio calculations. Using factorisation of the copula correlation matrix, discretisation of the conditional loss distribution followed by a…
Using the grouped t-copula
Student-t copula models are popular, but can be over-simplistic when used to describe credit portfolios where the risk factors are numerous or dissimilar. Here, Stéphane Daul, Enrico De Giorgi, Filip Lindskog and Alexander McNeil construct a new,…
Pricing exotics under the smile
Masterclass – with JP Morgan
Benchmarking asset correlations
Basel II stipulates that the asset correlation to be used in calibration of obligor risk weights is 20%. Here, Alfred Hamerle, Thilo Liebig and Daniel Rösch use a parametric model to empirically obtain asset correlations from a large database of…
Operational and market risks of a regulated power utility
Victor Dvortsov and Ken Dragoon present an analytical method for including market and operational risks when estimating utility portfolio value-at-risk.
Breaking down the model
Brett Humphreys and Andy Dunn outline a method to help energy companies minimise potential model risk and thereby avoid costly errors in valuing deals.
Operational and market risks of a regulated power utility
Victor Dvortsov and Ken Dragoon present an analytical method for including market and operational risks when estimating utility portfolio value-at-risk
Pay attention to interest
Masterclass – with JP Morgan
Modelling venture capital funds
Modelling venture capital funds is a challenge and has become more important due to recentand upcoming securitisation deals, the need for efficient portfolio management, and Basel II.Here, Thomas Meyer and Tom Weidig summarise the issues both industry…