Markets
Latest Markets
Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
EU lags UK on commodity position limits – RWE
German energy firm urges EU to follow UK in handing position limit powers to trading venues
How vol eruption blew up Goldman’s rates book
Dealers were short payer skew from corporate and hedge fund flows. Then came the Iran war.
FactSet’s Portware expands to tackle complex FX
EMS vendor eyes automation for high-touch FX trades while adding connectivity to new venues
Treasury basis trade loses its allure as returns shrink
Tight spreads and rising funding costs are pushing the cash-futures basis trade out of favour
Dollar smiles again, but for how long?
Twitchy investors backed the buck during Iran war, but experts are divided on whether this marks a return of the dollar smile
Interest rates
Treasury mulls investing cash in repo. Experts aren’t convinced.
Putting idle cash to work would earn paltry returns and perhaps depress private lending activity, say sceptics
Ice sets up four-way race for Japan’s Tona futures
London joins Osaka, Tokyo and Singapore exchanges in battle for yen rates contracts
Eurex short-term rates volumes collapse on Iran volatility
Surging yields, options hedging activity and revamped incentive schemes drive record volumes at Ice
Markets perceive the future in very distorted ways
Discounting paradigms should adapt to be more realistic, says Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Counterparty Radar
Matchmaking and benchmarking for OTC derivatives
Counterparty Radar is based on position data from around 20,000 US mutual funds and ETFs, rolled up to the manager level – it shows the OTC derivatives they have on their books, and who they traded them with, providing unique insights into an important market segment. More info
BlackRock uses options to rewire AI bets
Counterparty Radar: Global Allocation Fund shifts from net short to net long derivatives as equity allocation falls
Foreign exchange
Market-makers give mixed verdict as CME Spot+ turns one
Traders encouraged by depth of liquidity despite wider spreads and passive performance qualms
LSEG’s FXall to launch credit-intermediated FX forwards service
Split Risk to allow buy side to tap best spot and swap prices to create forwards, and unbundle market and credit risk
An eye on API: bilateral FX takes hold with some asset managers
Long-term savings in trading costs are tempting buy-siders to explore direct connectivity with liquidity providers
JP Morgan’s race to simplify FX options trading
Fewer clicks, more automation win systematic clients and boost electronic volumes
Vol control indexes rewire for V-shaped rebounds
Dealers aim to fix sluggish performance of indexes that underpin $130 billion-a-year FIA market
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