Scenario analysis
Actionable data breach insights from op risk modelling
Thomas Lee, chief executive at VivoSecurity, and Martin Liljeblad, operational risk manager at MUFG Americas, examine how a data breach cost model can replace an advanced measurement approach in a structured scenario
Banks should quantify loan-loss model risk – academic
Models such as those used for IFRS 9, CECL or CCAR are prone to errors, and should be accounted for
Lenders reveal struggles over IFRS 9 roll-out
Size of task caught some banks unawares, leading to botched home-grown systems or data problems
Barclays’ cyber chief: try to break your own IT defences
Banks “must go beyond vulnerability assessments”, conference hears
Op risk modelling to survive move to SMA
Models will still be needed to measure forward-looking risks under Pillar 2
Fed willing to listen on CCAR transparency calls
Central bank will seek industry input on bolstering transparency of stress test regime, says Quarles
Banks move to model smaller op risk losses
Credit Suisse is using scenario analysis to model the risks associated with internal fraud losses
Why multi-asset managers shouldn’t count on the past
Risk models are backward-looking but history won’t repeat itself
Op risk family tree challenges Basel’s business line focus
Cladistic analysis shows importance of control failure, crime and fraud
Operational risk modelling – finally?
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A holistic view of risk: Combining risk assessment, risk events, scenario and KRI data
Sponsored webinar: MetricStream
Trust in clusters: a new approach to stress testing
Search for plausible stress scenarios leads Natixis risk managers in a new direction
SMA proposal fires up op risk managers
Banks say backward-looking SMA is easily gamed and will lead to high and volatile capital charges
Priips performance scenario rules under fire
New rules needlessly confusing, say distributors
European banks face steep op risk capital hike from SMA
Op risk accounts for 28% of US banks’ RWAs, compared with 12% at European banks
Random drawing might fill gaps in liquidity risk data
HypoVereinsbank risk controller proposes bootstrapped approach to liquidity stress testing
Application of the convolution operator for scenario integration with loss data in operational risk modeling
This paper addresses the uncertainty in scenario analysis and produces a combined loss distribution.
Risk evaluation of wind turbine investments
This paper assesses the risk inherent in wind turbine investments that rely on a power market in order to determine the selling price of generated power.
Op risk needs more weight in business decisions – NY Fed
Head of op risk supervisory team views tools as 'catalysts for change'
Fighting the cognitive biases that undermine scenario analysis
Risk managers should be aware of unconscious flaws in estimation
Ask questions and avoid sure bets, energy traders told
E.on Global Commodities CRO calls for disciplined approach to trading decisions
Flawed reliance on VAR a systemic risk for insurers
Solvency II has its weaknesses, says writer and consultant René Doff
GE Capital's Sabath describes '1.2 line of defence' model
Risk review and challenge belongs on the front line, conference hears
How banks handle and model emerging operational risks
Spreading the net wide enough to catch as many data sources as possible is key to tackling emerging risks