Risk Quantum/Citi
Citi’s modelled RWAs outpace standardised by record $152bn
Widening RWA output gap puts Collins floor back in spotlight
Citi leads US banks in lowballing capital hit in stress test
Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo internal projections also show more capital resilience than Fed’s calculations
Morgan Stanley, Goldman to benefit most from TLAC and LTD reform
Fed’s eSLR overhaul slashes requirements for large US banks, ushering in lighter capital demands
JPM, Wells Fargo would net record AOCI windfalls in severe recession
Latest DFAST projects $58bn AOCI rebound on aggregate, with two banks driving over 60% of the recovery
Seven banks fall short of full capital buffers in DFAST 2025
DB USA posts largest gap, with four G-Sibs also dipping below their full requirements
US G-Sibs set to reclaim $6.6trn in leverage room under eSLR reform
Replacement of fixed 2% buffer with variable add-on could cut requirements by up to 150bp
US G-Sibs’ non-bank assets surpass $6trn for first time
After plateauing for years, non-bank asset shares surged in 2024, led by Citi and JPM
Unseasonal Q1 surge lifts US G-Sib scores to record highs
Latest systemic risk scores for JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman and Morgan Stanley could lead to extra 50bp to their respective capital surcharges
US banks held $2.2trn of USTs on eve of tariff turmoil
AFS holdings hit record $1.04 trillion days before Trump’s tariff announcement pushed Treasury yields higher
Fed’s proposed SCB tweak would free $20bn of capital at US banks
Averaging of stress test-based inputs over two years would reduce current add-ons by up to 60bp
JPM boosts credit loss provisions to highest levels since 2020
Allowances up to $28bn driven by worsening economic outlook
Bond rout puts pressure on UST holdings at US banks
Banks leaned heavily on mark-to-market Treasuries before April’s sell-off