Technical paper/Default risk
A model combining Optuna and the light gradient-boosting machine algorithm for credit default forecasting
The authors put forward a default prediction model designed to make the analysis of complex, highly dimensional and imbalanced real-world bank data easier.
Forecasting the default risk of Chinese listed companies using a gradient-boosted decision tree based on the undersampling technique
The authors put forward a model for default prediction designed to minimise the impact of imbalanced classification, verifying its effectiveness with real world data from Chinese listed companies.
Credit contagion risk in German auto loans
The authors employ a data set of over 5 million German auto loans to investigate credit contagion risk and show that defaults cannot be attributed to single factors.
Leveraged wrong-way risk
A model to assess the exposure to leveraged and collateralised counterparties is presented
Default forecasting based on a novel group feature selection method for imbalanced data
The authors construct a group feature selection method which combines optimal instance selection with weighted comprehensive precision in an effort to improve the performance of prediction models in relation to defaulting firms.
Small and medium-sized enterprises’ time to default: an analysis using an improved mixture cure model with time-varying covariates
The authors put forward a method using a support vector machine to enhance the exploration of nonlinear covariate effects if SMEs never default while also considering time-varying and fixed covariates for the incidence and latency of an event.
Banking on personality: psychometrics and consumer creditworthiness
This paper uses empirical methods to investigate how psychometric data can be used to augment traditional credit models.
Collateralised exposure modelling: bridging the gap risk
Concentration, leverage and correlations may affect a collateralised equity swap portfolio
Assessing systemic fragility: a probabilistic perspective
Using new measure of systemic fragility, the author ranks euro area banks and sovereigns and according to their systemic risk contribution.
Sovereign probabilities of default in the euro area
This paper decomposes credit default swap spreads of euro area members into their risk premium and default risk elements and forecast one year probabilities of default.
Incorporating small-sample defaults history in loss given default models
This paper proposes a methodology for estimating loss given default (LGD) that accounts for small default sample sizes.
Penalty methods for bilateral XVA pricing in European and American contingent claims by a partial differential equation model
Under some assumptions, the valuation of financial derivatives, including a value adjustment to account for default risk (the so-called XVA), gives rise to a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE). The authors propose numerical methods for…
Research on listed companies’ credit ratings, considering classification performance and interpretability
This study uses the correlation coefficient and F-test to select the initial features of a credit evaluation system, and then a validity index for a second selection to ensure that the feature system has the optimum ability to discriminate in determining…
Determination of weights for an optimal credit rating model based on default and nondefault distance maximization
This study proposes a credit rating model that accurately identifies default and nondefault companies by maximizing intergroup credit score deviations and minimizing intragroup deviations.
The economics of debt collection, with attention to the issue of salience of collections at the time credit is granted
This paper considers the role of policies that protect consumers from aggressive debt collection tactics.
Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle
The author assesses the quantitative effects of the recent proposal for more robust bank capital adequacy.
KVA as a transfer of wealth
A capital valuation adjustment designed to preserve a firm’s value to shareholders is introduced
Pricing multiple barrier derivatives under stochastic volatility
This work generalizes existing one- and two-dimensional pricing formulas with an equal number of barriers to a setting of n dimensions and up to two barriers in the presence of stochastic volatility.
Corporate default risk modeling under distressed economic and financial conditions in a developing economy
The authors create stepwise logistic regression models to predict the probability of default for private nonfinancial firms under distressed financial and economic conditions in a developing economy. Their main aim is to identify and interpret the…
Benchmarking loss given default discount rates
This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of alternative discount rate concepts for computing loss given default rates using historical bank workout data.
Elliptical and Archimedean copula models: an application to the price estimation of portfolio credit derivatives
This paper explores the impact of elliptical and Archimedean copula models on the valuation of basket default swaps.