Value-at-risk (VAR)
Extreme value theory has hidden risks, research finds
Method for calculating capital based on sparse data can lead to additional model risk
Model uncertainty in risk capital measurement
The authors of this paper propose to quantify the effectiveness of a capital estimation procedure via the notions of residual estimation risk and estimated capital risk.
Cutting Edge introduction: No more shortfalls?
Academics develop expected shortfall backtest to compare standardised and internal models
Expected shortfall is jointly elicitable with value-at-risk: implications for backtesting
Fissler, Ziegel and Gneiting investigate the role of elicitability in backtesting problems and show how comparative backtests can be implemented for expected shortfall
Diversification benefit of operational risk
Torresetti and Le Pera explore the relevance of the diversification benefit from a theoretical and practical viewpoint
Downside risk measure performance in the presence of breaks in volatility
This paper proposes a loss function-based framework for the comparative measurement of the sensitivity of quantile downside risk measures to breaks in volatility or distribution.
An analytical value-at-risk approach for a credit portfolio with liquidity horizon and portfolio rebalancing
The authors provide a two-period analytical value-at-risk approach for credit portfolios with a liquidity horizon and a constant level of risk.
And so, farewell: David Rowe's final risk analysis column
After 16 years as our risk analysis columnist, David Rowe looks back at a recurring challenge
A comparison of alternative mixing models for external data in operational risk
This paper studies alternative mixing models for external data for a particular risk class.
Extreme value theory, asset ranking and threshold choice: a practical note on VaR estimation
This paper analyzes asset rankings derived from state-of-the-art POT approaches to estimate VaR.
Historical simulation with component weight and ghosted scenarios
This paper puts forward two strategies for improving Historical Simulation in weak areas.
Expected shortfall’s silver lining
Despite continuing to insist that replacing value-at-risk with expected shortfall in the Basel Capital accord is wrongheaded and potentially dangerous, David Rowe argues that the shift may have an important silver lining
Risk model validation for BRICS countries: a value-at-risk, expected shortfall and extreme value theory approach
The authors of this paper employ value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as risk measures to assess the competency of several volatility models, based on the stock indexes of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)…
UK banks won't face FRTB capital hike – BoE official
Policy expert says most trading risks already captured under Pillar 2 framework
Credit risk: taking fluctuating asset correlations into account
This paper puts forward an ensemble approach for asset correlations.
Advanced risk profile analysis of Islamic equity investment: evidence from the American, Asian and European markets
This paper investigates three Islamic equity indexes, classified by economic hubs (Dow Jones Europe, Asia/Pacific and United States), against their conventional peers from 2003 to 2009.
Applying the Cornish–Fisher expansion to value-at-risk estimation in Islamic banking
This study deliberates upon a proposed delta–gamma sensitivity analysis–extreme value theory (DGSA–EVT) model that focuses on the assessment of risk exposures represented by the value of value-at-risk (VaR) in three incomegenerating channels: one in…
Risk ratings rumpus: industry at odds over Priips methodologies
Dealers, regulators and distributors split on way forward for key information document risk indicators
American options: time-critical pricing
Time constraints can be binding for ‘heavy’ Monte Carlo calculations of risk analytics – value-at-risk, potential future exposure, credit valuation adjustment – in intraday risk monitoring, so fast approximations are sometimes preferred. Vladislav…
Commodity value-at-risk modeling: comparing RiskMetrics, historic simulation and quantile regression
The authors of this paper investigate the risk modeling of commodities. They note that return distributions differ widely across different commodities, both in terms of tail fatness and skewness.
Flawed reliance on VAR a systemic risk for insurers
Solvency II has its weaknesses, says writer and consultant René Doff
Backtesting Solvency II value-at-risk models using a rolling horizon
The author of this paper performs an analysis on a review of the equity stress parameter for Dutch pension funds.
Bayesian operational risk models
This paper proposes a methodology to frame risk self-assessment data into suitable prior distributions that can produce posterior distributions from which accurate operational risk measures.
Scaling operational loss data and its systemic risk implications
A scaling methodology to include external data in operational risk calculation is introduced