Quantitative analysis
Going downturn
There is much debate regarding the definition of 'downturn' loss given default (LGD). In this article, Michael Barco offers an analytic approach for calculating downturn LGD so that credit risk capital is not underestimated or overestimated
Evaluating the policy implications of the other two pillars of Basel II
This brief evaluates the supervisory-process and market-discipline pillars of the Basel II bank regulatory framework.
Optimized enterprise risk management
As the result of the increasing costs of risk and compliance activities, enterprises are beginning to integrate compliance and risk management into a comprehensive enterprise risk management function and thus proactively address all sorts of risk,…
Risk Sharing - Constructing sustainable pensions
Technical papers
Cracking VAR with kernels
Value-at-risk analysis has become a key measure of portfolio risk in recent years, but how can we calculate the contribution of some portfolio component? Eduardo Epperlein and Alan Smillie show how kernel estimators can be used to provide a fast,…
Modelling inflation
Lars Kjaergaard models inflation using a three-factor Gaussian method. This gives a simple description of derivatives linked to inflation and interest rates, and allows for fast evaluation. He then shows how the model can be calibrated
Loan portfolio value
Using a conditional independence framework, Oldrich Vasicek derives a useful limiting form for the portfolio loss distribution with a single systematic factor. He then derives a risk-neutral distribution suitable for traded portfolios, and shows how…
The probability approach to default probabilities
Default estimation for low-default portfolios has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II's internal ratings-based rules. Here, Nicholas Kiefer applies the probability approach to uncertainty and modelling to default…
Pricing with a smile
In the January 1994 issue of Risk, Bruno Dupire showed how the Black-Scholes model can be extended to make it compatible with observed market volatility smiles, allowing consistent pricing and hedging of exotic options
Modelling CDO tranches with dependent loss given default
Guido Giese presents an analytic methodology for pricing collateralised debt obligations tranches including stochastic and dependent loss given default
Dynamic asset allocation
Technical papers
Realised volatility and variance: options via swaps
Peter Carr and Roger Lee present explicit and readily applicable formulas for valuing options on realised variance and volatility. They use variance and volatility swaps - or alternatively vanilla options - as pricing benchmarks and hedging instruments…
Risk contributions from generic user-defined factors
In this article, Attilio Meucci draws on regression analysis to decompose volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall into arbitrary combinations or aggregations of risk factors, and presents a simple recipe to implement this approach in practice
Modelling inflation
Lars Kjaergaard models inflation using a three-factor Gaussian method. This gives a simple description of derivatives linked to inflation and interest rates, and allows for fast evaluation. He then shows how the model can be calibrated
Modelling CDO tranches with dependent loss given default
Guido Giese presents an analytic methodology for pricing collateralised debt obligations tranches including stochastic and dependent loss given default
Modelling pensioner longevity
Technical papers
Markovian projection for volatility calibration
Vladimir Piterbarg looks at the Markovian projection method, a way of obtaining closed-form approximations of European-style option prices on various underlyings that, in principle, is applicable to any (diffusive) model. The aim is to distil the essence…
Calibration of CDO tranches with the dynamical GPL model
Consistent calibration of a credit index and its tranches across maturities with a single arbitrage-free model is a difficult problem. Here, Damiano Brigo, Andrea Pallavicini and Roberto Torresetti show that a simple loss dynamics based on the…
Realised volatility and variance: options via swaps
Volatility Options
Equity risk at the horizon
Technical papers
The intrinsic currency-valuation framework
Cutting Edge: Foreign exchange
Credit risk contagion
In a recession, company defaults increase due to both the worsening economic environment and the specific links between customers and suppliers. Banks intuitively know that customer default can cause supplier default. Duncan Martin and Chris Marrison…
Markovian projection for volatility calibration
Vladimir Piterbarg looks at the 'Markovian projection method', a way of obtaining closed-form approximations of European-style option prices on various underlyings that, in principle, is applicable to any (diffusive) model. The aim is to distil the…
When did the JGB market become efficient?
Focusing on the deviation from the fair-yield curve, Koichi Miyazaki and Satoshi Nomura discuss the transition in efficiency observed in the Japanese government bond market and find out that the turning point was in 1996, when the Japanese repo market…