Quantitative analysis
Component VAR for a non-normal world
Market Risk
Struck off
Credit default swaps (CDSs) offer protection against issuer default, and in general the protection is paid via a running spread rather than upfront. When the par spread changes, the contract cannot be unwound without leaving a default-contingent annuity…
Parameter estimation with k-means clustering
Ever since the pioneering work of Cox, Ross & Rubinstein (1979), tree models have been popular as an asset pricing method. However, statistical estimation of the parameters of tree models has been less studied. In this article, Kiseop Lee and Mingxin Xu…
Mortality fluctuations modelling with a shared frailty approach
Technical papers
Smile dynamics III
In two articles published in 2004 and 2005 in Risk, Lorenzo Bergomi assessed the structural limitations of existing models for equity derivatives and introduced a new model based on the direct modelling of the joint dynamics of the spot and the implied…
Fully flexible views: theory and practice
Attilio Meucci proposes a unified methodology to input non-linear views from any number of users in fully general non-normal markets and perform, among others, stress testing, scenario analysis and ranking allocation. He walks the reader through the…
Improving annuity pricing with address data
Technical papers
A multi-state Vasicek model for correlated default rate and loss severity
Correlation between default and recovery has an important bearing on credit risk capital. Here, Rahul Sen shows that the effect can be modelled efficiently by allowing multiple loss states in the Vasicek framework. Heavy-tailed distributions result for…
Convexity adjustments in inflation-linked derivatives
Dorje Brody, John Crosby and Hongyun Li value several types of inflation-linked derivatives using a multi-factor version of the Hughston (1998) and Jarrow & Yildirim (2003) model. Expressions for the prices of zero-coupon inflation swaps with delayed…
Gamma loss and prepayment
Peter Jackel presents a model for the dynamics of fractional notional losses and prepayments on asset-backed securities for the valuation and risk management of derivatives, including waterfall structures and other structured debt obligations on bespoke…
Let's jump together: pricing credit derivatives
Joao Garcia, Serge Goossens and Wim Schoutens introduce a dynamic multivariate jump-driven model for credit spreads. The model parameters come from a calibration on swaptions and a correlation-matching procedure. The authors apply the model to credit…
Combining the SABR and LMM models
Pierre Henry-Labordere analyses a stochastic volatility Libor market model that combines the SABR and Brace-Gatarek-Musiela (BGM) models in a natural way. Using an innovative geometrical method, he explains how to obtain analytical formulas for swaption…
A free lunch and the credit crunch
Monoline insurers act as triple-A guarantors of the senior risks in structured finance. A purchaser of credit insurance or protection from a monoline may argue that they take only a small amount of the counterparty risk that is a common side-effect of…
Estimating credit contagion in a standard factor model
State-of-the-art credit risk portfolio models and the new Basel capital Accord consider only symmetric dependencies between borrowers in a portfolio, such as correlations. Recently, asymmetric dependencies have been introduced by Davis & Lo (2001), among…
Structural modelling of subprime mortgages
With the economy still suffering from the waves of the credit crunch, triggered by a housing price slump, Yong Kim provides a structural model of subprime mortgages based on housing market risks. Given the enormity of the subprime mortgage market failure…
Valuation and risk analysis for Dutch pension schemes
Technical papers
A multi-state Vasicek model for correlated default rate and loss severity
Correlation between default and recovery has a major bearing on credit risk capital. Rahul Sen shows the effect can be modelled efficiently by allowing multiple loss states in the Vasicek framework. Heavy-tailed distributions result for arbitrary loss…
Explaining the Levy base correlation smile
Joao Garcia and Serge Goossens look at base expected loss at maturity both in the Gaussian copula and Levy-based models, and link it to base correlation in these frameworks. They report on the existence of smile in both base correlation curves and…
Inflation is normal
Chris Kenyon introduces normal-based smile models for year-on-year inflation motivated by the observation that market lognormal caplet volatilities of less than 1% imply normality for maturities of up to 30 years. He is also motivated by the range of…
Estimating intrinsic currency values
Forex market practitioners constantly talk about the strengthening or weakening of individual currencies. In this article, Jian Chen and Paul Doust present a new methodology to quantify these statements in a manner that is consistent with forex market…
On the cost of regulation under Solvency II
Technical papers
Information derivatives
Andrei Soklakov considers the problem of creating derivatives to provide tailored exposure to volatility risk. Information theory leads us to a whole class of such products. This class of 'information derivatives' includes the standard volatility…
Information derivatives
Andrei Soklakov considers the problem of creating derivatives to provide tailored exposure to volatility risk. Information theory leads us to a whole class of such products. This class of 'information derivatives' includes standard volatility products -…
Valuing Tips bond futures with the Jarrow-Yildirim model
Hongming Huang and Yildiray Yildirim apply the Jarrow-Yildirim model to derive a closed-form solution for Treasury inflation-protected securities (Tips) futures. With the issuance of inflation-protected bonds and the impact of inflation on financial…