Machine learning
Rates investors unmoved by stories of AI bliss, or doom
Research shows downward moves in US Treasury yields around generative AI model releases
Why know-it-all LLMs make second-rate forecasters
A bevy of experiments suggests LLMs are ill-suited for time-series forecasting
Addressing climate-related risks in banking: a framework for sustainable risk management and regulatory alignment
This paper puts forward a dual-layer approach to climate risk management with utilises root cause-based analysis and severity assessments to prioritize and address climate-related risks.
A comprehensive explainable approach for imbalanced financial distress prediction
The authors suggest an explainable machine learning method for imbalanced financial distress prediction which uses extreme gradient boosting.
Trump’s FX impact: a tale of two terms
Traders say Trump version 2.0 is already proving a much trickier task to manage than the original, and have had to adapt
Removing the barriers to AI success
Addressing challenges of data quality and governance to scale AI for competitive advantage
The AI bot that left the garage
Senior operational risk exec explains how hidden third-party feature could lead to systemic risk
Quants use AI to shush noisy order-book data
Signals from clusters of seemingly informed trading perform better, researchers say
Building reliable and successful LLM-based workflows
How AI is reshaping analytics, compliance and modelling in finance
Machine learning and a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation for optimal decumulation: a comparison study
This paper ascertains a decumulation strategy for the holder of a defined contribution pension plan with an approach based on neural network optimization.
Stock-picking bots and models that don’t trade: AI at Vontobel
Early experiments are already bearing fruit, in sometimes surprising ways
Podcast: Villani and Musaelian on a quantum boost for machine learning
Classical methods struggle with highly dimensional problems. Quantum cognition takes a different approach, as hedge fund duo explain
Model risk quantification for machine learning models in credit risk
This paper analyses bank-specific model risk measurement methods with a focus on implemented model risk rating solutions for MLMs and discusses challenges faced by the validation function.
Why AI-enhanced risk management is vital for open finance
In bank-fintech partnerships, AI can be both a source of operational risk and a solution to it
Bank FX market-makers ramp up AI usage
Barclays applies tech to predictions, while HSBC and ING look at pricing accuracy
The fate of zombie firms: prediction, determinants and exit paths
This paper examines how machine learning and statistical methods may be used to predict whether or not zombie firms will escape their fate as zombies.
Enhancing default prediction in alternative lending: leveraging credit bureau data and machine learning
The authors apply machine learning techniques to credit bureau data and loan-specific variables to improve default prediction in the alternative lending sector.
Supervised similarity for high-yield bonds
Quantum cognition ML is used to identify tradable alternatives for high-yield corporate bonds
How magic a bullet is machine learning for credit analysis? An exploration with fintech lending data
The authors apply machine learning techniques to consumer fintech loan data to assess how such techniques can improve out-of-sample default prediction.
Investment decisions driven by fine-tuned large language models and uniform manifold approximation and projection-supported clustering and hierarchical density-based spatial clustering
The author proposes an investment strategy using LLMs and text from social media posts and business and economic news and demonstrate that the strategy outperforms the chosen benchmark.
Why AI will never predict financial markets
Laws that govern swings in asset prices are beyond statistical grasp of machine learning technology, argues academic Daniel Bloch
DeepSeek success spurs banks to consider do-it-yourself AI
Chinese LLM resets price tag for in-house systems – and could also nudge banks towards open-source models
Tech firm OneChronos to offer ‘bundled’ equity-FX trading
New auction algorithms will optimise multi-leg trades; FX roll-out due in second quarter
AI ‘lab’ or no, banks triangulate towards a common approach
Survey shows split between firms with and without centralised R&D. In practice, many pursue hybrid path