IFRS 9
EU banks add overlays as crises evade modelling
Lenders buttress provisions against unpredictable fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine
ECL model forecasts are off-target, researchers find
Anticipated slowdown will be first major test for new generation of expected credit loss models
Stressing of migration matrixes for International Financial Reporting Standard 9 and Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process calculations
This paper demonstrates that correlation estimates are sensitive to model assumptions and estimation methodology by comparing three methods used to stress rating transition matrixes.
Net-zero pledges bring big unknown for credit risk
Uncertainty on how governments plan to curb emissions adds political dimension to credit quality assessments
Rabobank’s shaky loans up 35% on emissions cut plans
Bank says Dutch government proposal to reduce pollution from livestock farming risks making loans unviable
Banks temper credit loss models by editing Covid narrative
Faced with geopolitical chaos and signs of recession, expected credit loss models need to adapt fast
‘Are we nearly there yet?’ Banks navigate ESG loan accounting
Lenders ask standards boards for guidance on how rules should be applied
ING takes €1.6bn capital hit on Russia exposures
Bank adds €834 million of provisions and takes €9 billion of new credit RWAs
Modeling credit risk in the presence of central bank and government intervention
In this paper a simple approach for including central bank and government intervention in credit models is developed and illustrated using the Fed’s data for the CCAR 2021 stress test.
New model simplifies loan-loss forecasts. Some say it’s too simple
Modelling approach devised by Commerzbank quant promises to ease computational burden, but may not suit complex portfolios
EU banks with thinnest buffers tap heftiest IFRS 9 capital add-backs
EBA data shows lenders whose capital benefitted most from transitional loan-loss relief also have skinniest CET1 capital ratios
EBA warns banks over loan-loss model tinkering
Senior executive says methods of adjusting IFRS 9 models to “smooth” outputs should be investigated
Estimating loan loss provisions may have just got easier
Commerzbank quant proposes shortcut to calculate lifetime loan loss reserves
A prudent loss given default estimation for mortgages. II
This paper introduces a prudent methodology to accurately estimates loss given default for mortgage portfolios and to stress test those portfolios effectively.
Expanding modelling ops for extending datasets
Risk Technology Awards 2021
Validation nightmare: the slotting approach under International Financial Reporting Standard 9
This paper makes an important contribution to the practice of validation by focusing on an under-researched area of the slotting approach to real estate specialized lending under the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) framework.
Covid-forborne loans default en masse in EBA stress test
13.4% of ex-moratoria exposures in ‘stage three’ default at 2023 test end-point
Covid-forborne EU loans sour faster as more exit moratoria
Exposures classified as stage two rose 37% in the first three months of 2021
Canada’s top banks cut loan-loss provisions by $1.2bn
The decrease in set-asides represents a 92% fall quarter on quarter
From one extreme to another: Covid upsets loan models once more
Unusual economic slumps tripped up models in 2020. Now, they are struggling with fast recoveries
UK banks released £671m of loan-loss provisions in Q1
HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest all released surplus credit reserves
Santander added to its pile of shaky loans in Q1
‘Stage two’ assets made up 7% of its total at end-March
Strange new world of Covid economics upends loan-loss models
Models wrong-footed by government support, slumps in whole sectors and differences within industries
EU systemic banks added €9bn to capital through IFRS 9 break
UniCredit was the top beneficiary with an 82 basis points CET1 ratio boost