Technical paper
Valuation and risk analysis for Dutch pension schemes
Technical papers
A multi-state Vasicek model for correlated default rate and loss severity
Correlation between default and recovery has a major bearing on credit risk capital. Rahul Sen shows the effect can be modelled efficiently by allowing multiple loss states in the Vasicek framework. Heavy-tailed distributions result for arbitrary loss…
Explaining the Levy base correlation smile
Joao Garcia and Serge Goossens look at base expected loss at maturity both in the Gaussian copula and Levy-based models, and link it to base correlation in these frameworks. They report on the existence of smile in both base correlation curves and…
Inflation is normal
Chris Kenyon introduces normal-based smile models for year-on-year inflation motivated by the observation that market lognormal caplet volatilities of less than 1% imply normality for maturities of up to 30 years. He is also motivated by the range of…
Estimating intrinsic currency values
Forex market practitioners constantly talk about the strengthening or weakening of individual currencies. In this article, Jian Chen and Paul Doust present a new methodology to quantify these statements in a manner that is consistent with forex market…
Performance of statistical arbitrage in petroleum futures markets
Regulation Update