Technical paper
Forward thinking for backwardation
In certain settings it's reasonable to assume that the current futures price embodies the market expectations of the spot price. However, as Gary Dorris, Sean Burrows and Vena Kostroun explain, there are distinct situations when this assumption does not…
Strategie di trading sulla pendenza
DERIVATI CREDITIZI
Smiling at convexity
The price of a constant maturity swap (CMS)-based derivative is largely determined by the value of swaption volatilities at extreme strikes. Fabio Mercurio and Andrea Pallavicini propose a simple procedure for stripping consistently implied volatilities…
Cracking VAR with kernels
Value-at-risk analysis has become a key measure of portfolio risk in recent years, but how can we calculate the contribution of some portfolio component? Eduardo Epperlein and Alan Smillie show how kernel estimators can be used to provide a fast,…
Low-default portfolios without simulation
Low-default portfolios are a key Basel II implementation challenge, and various statistical techniques have been proposed for use in PD estimation for such portfolios. To produce estimates using these techniques, typically Monte Carlo simulation is…
Empirical electricity price modelling
Hanjie Chen and John N. Jiang discuss how system-wide load-capacity ratio and system-wide generation forced outages impact day-ahead electricity spot price and show how to incorporate these two key factors in the price modelling
Margining insurance liabilities
Cutting edge: Solvency II
UBS
Quant Analysis
Deutsche Bank
Quant Analysis
Caixa Laietana
Quant Analysis
Nvesta
Quant Analysis
CMCDS valuation with market models
There is little, if any, literature available on constant-maturity credit default swap (CDS) valuation. Here, Damiano Brigo builds on his no-arbitrage dynamic CDS market model to derive a formula involving a 'convexity adjustment' feature correction,…
A saddle for complex credit portfolio models
Guido Giese applies the saddle-point approximation to analyse tail losses for very general credit portfolios, including correlated defaults, stochastic recovery rates, and dependency between default probabilities and recovery rates. The numerical…