Great Expectations



"You can keep modelling until you are blue in the face - but at some point you need to take a view on what the likely future development of life expectancy is," - in one sentence, Scott Brown, Norwich Union's head of annuities, takes a machete through the jungle of acronyms and buzzwords that make up the longevity landscape.

Deterministic versus stochastic; trend or cohort effect; P-spline over Lee Carter - modelling life expectancy has proved fecund soil for the growth of academic language, but

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