Opinion
Podcast: Abi-Jaber and Li on a ‘sticky’ volatility problem
The pair discuss their model to jointly capture Vix, SPX and SSR
Op risk data: Cyber hacks shake crypto protocols
Also: JP Morgan fined over investor losses; Symetra’s Methodist pensions mess. Data by ORX News
Prediction markets can be a canary in the coal mine
Prices of contracts on the likes of Polymarket can act as signals for risk management and hedging, says risk expert
How AI agents can join the dots for risk managers
Citi risk expert outlines agentic AI tool that would pull together structured and unstructured data on trading and lending approvals to create single, unified view of risk
Do banks still need to validate GenAI models?
Regulators carved out GenAI models from new risk guidance. Banks shouldn’t see this as a reason to stop validating them.
Op risk data: Corporate spies spell trouble for BBVA
Also: BofA buttonholed for alleged Epstein links; minority shareholders take a bite of Brookfield. Data by ORX News
The rise of AI politics
AI should not be treated as just another technology, writes MAS adviser David Hardoon
AI risk management and the shift to capability control
By reframing validation, banks can align innovation with regulatory demands and maintain robust risk discipline, argues risk manager
Tokenised commodities could help oil the machine
Shifting physical assets onto the blockchain eases collateral frictions, argues crypto expert
In the age of GenAI, why do we still need good models?
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud says models can guide artificial intelligence through regime shifts and away from overfitting
Iran confusion makes the case for causal modelling
A new test model built using Claude suggests oil prices may surge back above $100
When trading speed outruns governance: the split-second control gap
A new form of light-driven electronics could be the next risk in market infrastructure, explains derivatives expert
Credit market maths seems not to add up
Today’s investors would appear to be better off buying ‘riskier’ debt
Has the Iran conflict made FX untradable?
FX options volumes jump despite high costs and short-lived opportunities
YCC, carry trades and the changing role of the yen
Marcello Minenna argues that as the BoJ adjusts its policy regime, changes in carry positioning are increasing the instability of the correlation between exchange rates and yield differentials
What futures and options say about the cost of war
Spot prices reveal major disruption, futures indicate this will pass, options imply ongoing instability
For collateral, can TINA become TIA?
US Treasuries’ dominance as collateral in repo and derivatives is no longer set in stone, argues economist
Op risk data: HK gets tough on takeover in $200m takedown
Also: Bank staff steal state funds in India; Vanguard settles US net zero lawsuit. Data by ORX News
Beyond epicycles: models must describe markets, not just fit them
Modelling needs to embrace complexity in volatility patterns, says Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Can AI be the great equaliser in e-FX?
FX market-makers see real benefits for agentic AI in code generation and data analysis
FRTB internal models: quo vadis?
Two risk experts explore how to adjust the FRTB framework to promote internal model usage