Monitoring Emerging Risks

Tim Astley

The 19th century philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “There are no facts, only interpretations”. While he was referring to a far deeper level of consciousness, he could well have been addressing the subject of emerging risks. This is because in examining how to deal with such risks in a business context, we have to recognise that there are many interpretations of what constitutes a risk or threat, and thus how we might respond to them most effectively. To avoid the associations of the term “threat” with “capability” or “intent”, we will use “emerging risks” as the predominant term throughout.

This chapter presents a range of interpretations of the term “emerging risk”, categorising them as either existing, changing or new, and examines the ways that organisations think and find out about what might threaten their own businesses in the future and how they might respond. Following on from the preceding chapter on horizon scanning, it also identifies some of the main emerging risks in a financial services context. Suggestions are made from real examples about how business continuity management (BCM) should be positioned to deal with those emerging risks for which a planned

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