The painful financial side of NFR

Frank Romeike and Stefan Koppold

Contents

Foreword

Preface

Introduction

Introduction to Part I: The origins of non-financial risk management

1.

The complete history of operational risk regulation (abridged)

2.

Financial institutions and non-financial risk: Learning from the corporate approach

3.

The painful financial side of NFR

4.

“Risk management is about managing risk” and “It’s all about people”: Psychology might be more important than models

5.

The confusion of Babel: What’s in the name NFR – taxonomy

Introduction to Part II: Governance of non-financial risk management

6.

“It’s the culture, stupid”: Risk culture as the key building block of NFR management – and why some banks have come through the Covid-19 pandemic better than others

7.

Do you know who is who? Three lines of defence in the context of NFR

8.

Herding cats? NFR divisions as truly diverse units

9.

“Just do it!”: Partially self-organising governance structures for NFR frameworks

Introduction to Part III: Tools and instruments for non-financial risk management

10.

A risk by any other name: Identification, classification and agendas

11.

Old but gold? Mastering the RCSA despite Covid-19

12.

Biases in scenario analyses and how to mitigate them

13.

When scenarios are not severe enough: Stress testing for non-financial risk

14.

Ending NFR in NFR: From Excel sheets to professional IT systems for NFR management

15.

Breaking up with risk management: Using the power of controls for good not the prevention of evil

Introduction to Part IV: Focus areas of non-financial risk management

16.

It won’t be over after Covid-19: Pandemics and operational resilience

17.

Dealing with IT complexity and innovation: Delivering business resilience and customer outcomes

18.

Protecting the new gold: Information security

19.

Conduct risk and the impact of Covid-19

20.

From lawsuits to models: Compliance risk and financial crime

21.

Others are doing it cheaper: But can they really? Opportunities and risks in outsourcing

22.

Managing reputation and stakeholders

Introduction to Part V: The future of non-financial risk management

23.

ESG risk as a new (and very important) trigger for NFR

24.

Looking into the crystal ball: What will NFR management look like in 2030?

25.

This time will be different: An alternative future of NFR management

26.

Right time, right place: The drive for change in operational and non-financial risk

The past as well as the present are full of examples of risk blindness, risk ignorance and downright stupidity. For instance, “The Reactor Safety Study” (Rasmussen, 1975) shows a prime case of ignorance in evaluating risks, implementing necessary actions and dogmatic discussions on probabilistic and qualitative approaches to risk assessment. In this report, the MIT physicist and scientist Norman Rasmussen introduced a new probability theory method of quantitative security and risk assessment called probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to account for the increasing size and complexity of traditional fault trees (fault tree analysis, FTA).

In the years to follow, this report was widely criticised due, in part, to the quantitative assessment of various risk scenarios. It had, however, correctly anticipated and evaluated the potential effects of a tsunami on a nuclear power plant. The report concluded that some power plants that could be hit by a tsunami or higher water levels caused by tornadoes would have to take the highest expected waves and water levels into account – in other words, the worst imaginable case.11 “Some plants are located on the seashore where the possibility of

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