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Scenarios fill the speculative gaps, op risk panel says

Panellists at the OpRisk Europe conference in London argued that key strategic risks can only be addressed by scenario analysis

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(l to r) Guenther Helbok, Giorgio Spriano, Andrew Sheen, Viet-Linh Nguyen

Scenario analysis still has a key role to play in operational risk modelling under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) to operational risk, the OpRisk Europe conference in London heard last week.

Developing an AMA model without using scenario analysis – which is the case in the US where banks have to use the loss distribution approach only – could lead to events not being captured and

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