Original research
Eigenportfolios of US equities for the exponential correlation model
In this paper, the eigendecomposition of a Toeplitz matrix populated by an exponential function in order to model empirical correlations of US equity returns is investigated.
Dynamic refinement of the term structure: time-homogeneous term structure modeling
The author considers a classical term structure model framework, ie, a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework, on a time-discrete tenor, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate market model, using a sequence of tenor discretizations, where the tenors are valid…
The econophysics of asset prices, returns and multiple expectations
The author models interactions between financial transactions and expectations and describe asset pricing and return disturbances.
Gaussian process regression for derivative portfolio modeling and application to credit valuation adjustment computations
The authors present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach, which is well suited for the over-the-counter derivative portfolio valuation involved in credit valuation adjustment (CVA) computation.
Optimal dynamic strategies on Gaussian returns
It is hoped that this paper will form a foundational approach to the study of dynamic strategies and how to optimize them. We make efforts to understand their properties without claiming to understand why they work (ie, why there are stable…
What is essential is invisible to the eye: prioritizing near misses to prevent future disasters
Near misses represent a primary information source to analyze the operational risk exposure of a company, since they can reveal gaps in the control environment. The model proposed in this paper aims at identifying the most dangerous events that could…
IFRS 9 compliant economic adjustment of expected credit loss modeling
This paper presents an International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) compliant solution related to expected credit loss modeling.
Is trading indicator performance robust? Evidence from scenario building
This paper challenges widely applied trading indicators with regard to their ability to generate a robust performance.
High-order approximations to call option prices in the Heston model
In the present paper, a decomposition formula for the call price due to Alòs is transformed into a Taylor-type formula containing an infinite series with stochastic terms. The new decomposition may be considered as an alternative to the decomposition of…
An emergent taxonomy for operational risk: capturing the wisdom of crowds
In this paper, the author takes a data-driven approach and combines the individual active taxonomies of sixty large financial institutions (fifty-eight for construction and two for validation) to create a coherent new reference taxonomy: the ORX…
Covid-19 and the credit cycle
The Covid-19 health crisis has dramatically affected just about every aspect of the economy, including the transition from a record long benign credit cycle to a stressed one, with still uncertain dimensions. This paper seeks to assess the credit climate…
Optimal weights and hedge ratio behavior in Brent oil and Islamic Gulf stock markets
This paper examines the dynamics and spillover behavior between time-varying optimal weights and hedge ratios in order to analyze optimal volatility allocation spillover and characteristic structure.
Optimal extraction and taxation of strategic natural resources: a differential game approach
This paper studies the optimal extraction and taxation of nonrenewable natural resources.
International announcements and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures: a case study on the 2008 global financial crisis
The authors examine the impact of international monetary policy and professionals' announcements on West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures.
Carbon pricing paths to a greener future, and potential roadblocks to public companies’ creditworthiness
In this paper, the authors introduce a valuation-based approach to estimate how energy transition risk may impact the creditworthiness of public companies globally within the next thirty years.
Profiling banks: how to use cluster analysis with payment system data
In this paper, payment profiles for participants are identified by applying clustering techniques to TARGET2 data.
Identification of interbank loans and interest rates from interbank payments: a reliability assessment
The authors investigate the reliability of the “Furfine filter” often used to identify interbank loans and interest rates from interbank payments settled at central banks.
Central counterparty auction design
The authors analyze the role of auctions in managing the default of a central counterparty’s clearing member.
Art-secured lending: a risk analysis framework
In this study, the authors identify the three types of risks involved in an art-secured lending operation and present a framework to assess their combined effects via a Monte Carlo simulation.
Volatility spillover along the supply chains: a network analysis on economic links
The analysis in this paper reveals that additional fundamental risk gets transferred along supply chains, and that suppliers are exposed to additional fundamental risk that is not captured by their market beta. Suppliers are therefore exposed to…
Integrating macroeconomic variables into behavioral models for interest rate risk measurement in the banking book
This paper proposed a nonparametric approach to decompose a macroeconomic variable into an interest-rate-correlated component and a macro-specific component.
Range-based volatility forecasting: a multiplicative component conditional autoregressive range model
This paper proposes a multiplicative component CARR (MCCARR) model to capture the "long-memory" effect in volatility.
Old-fashioned parametric models are still the best: a comparison of value-at-risk approaches in several volatility states
The authors present backtesting results for 1% and 2.5% VaR of six indexes from emerging and developed countries using several of the best-known VaR models, including generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), extreme value theory…
An alternative statistical framework for credit default prediction
This study compares the gradient-boosting model with four other well-known classifiers, namely, a classification and regression tree (CART), logistic regression (LR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and a random forest (RF).