Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Arden Hall is a Special Advisor in the Supervision, Regulation, and Credit Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Prior to that, he worked at financial institutions including Bank of America and Wells Fargo as well as at Fair Issacs and Company, specializing risk measurement for retail financial products. He holds an MA in Statistics and a Ph.D in Economics from the University of California Berkeley.
This paper demonstrates that the rank-order tests are unreliable for assessing models to be used to predict probabilities.