Die Lehren aus der Katastrophe
Seit die US-Golfküste im Jahr 2005 von Hurrikan Katrina heimgesucht wurde, haben die Versicherungen hoch entwickelte Katastrophenrisikomodelle implementiert. Welche Ergebnisse haben diese Produkte gezeigt; und kann der Bankensektor etwas von ihnen lernen?
Die Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise lassen sich kaum angemessen in Worte fassen. Immer wieder hört man in diesem Zusammenhang Schlagworte wie "Kernschmelze", "Kollaps" und "Blutbad" - letztlich Synonyme für den Begriff Katastrophe. Dabei dient der Vergleich mit Naturkatastrophen wohlgemerkt nicht nur der Veranschaulichung, sondern eröffnet auch einen mentalen und emotionalen Kontext, in dessen Rahmen das Ausmaß und die zerstörerische Kraft der Ereignisse für uns überhaupt erst fassbar werden.
Aber
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