Michael Howell, CrossBorder Capital

"The data follows the market" is the wisest market insight. Financial markets lead the real economies. They are forward-discounting mechanisms. Plunging share prices typically foreshadow forthcoming economic troubles, usually about six to nine months ahead. Markets also tend to discount upcoming periods of good economic news. But here they are usually a tad short-sighted and only move up around five months before. Therefore, rising unemployment and weakening business activity are consequences

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