Technical paper/Value-at-risk (VAR)
The minimally biased backtest for ES
Acerbi and Szekely present a backtest for expected shortfall
Counterparty risk: credit valuation adjustment variability and value-at-risk
This paper proposes an efficient method to obtain the distribution of the CVA at a given risk horizon, from which risk measures such as the CVA VaR can be computed.
From log-optimal portfolio theory to risk measures: logarithmic expected shortfall
In this paper, the authors propose a modification of expected shortfall that does not treat all losses equally. We do this in order to represent the worries surrounding big drops that are typical of multiperiod investors.
Capital allocation under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book
Quants propose an allocation method for internal model capital charges
Keep it real: tail probabilities of compound distributions
Igor Halperin proposes new approach to compute probabilities of heavy-tailed distributions
The implications of value-at-risk and short-selling restrictions for portfolio manager performance
This paper provides a framework to analyze the performance of a portfolio manager under a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint, in a Markowitz setup.
The utility of Basel III rules on excessive violations of internal risk models
In this paper, the author looks at the efficacy of risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indexes, and calculates both the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES) on each of these data sets as well as on…
A review of the state of the art in quantifying operational risk
In this paper, the authors provide a comprehensive review of the different approaches developed to model operational risk, specifically focusing on the actuarial approach.
A comprehensive evaluation of value-at-risk models and a comparison of their performance in emerging markets
This paper aims to evaluate the performance of different value-at-risk (VaR) calculation methods, allowing the authors to identify models that are valid for use in emerging markets.
Hedging of options in the presence of jump clustering
This paper analyzes the efficiency of hedging strategies for stock options in the presence of jump clustering.
Back to backtesting: integrated backtesting for value-at-risk and expected shortfall in practice
This paper aims to reflect the current state of the discussion on the validation of market risk forecasts by means of backtesting.
Multifactor granularity adjustments for market and counterparty risks
In this paper, the authors propose several flexible families of models to manage the market and/or the counterparty risk of portfolios of financial assets.
Estimation window strategies for value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting
This paper analyzes the impact of different estimation window strategies, including structural breaks and forecast combinations, on forecasting common risk measures such as VaR and ES.
Shrunk volatility value-at-risk: an application on US balanced portfolios
In this paper, the authors adopt a new method of predicting VaR, to estimate balanced portfolios’ VaR.
Impact of D-vine structure on risk estimation
In this paper, a sensitivity analysis using pair–copula decomposition of multivariate dependency models is performed on estimates of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).
Modeling very large losses
In this paper, the author presents a simple probabilistic model for aggregating very large losses into a loss collection.
The Kelly criterion in portfolio optimization: a decoupled problem
This paper examines how the Kelly criterion can be implemented into a portfolio optimization model that combines risk and return into a single objective function using a risk parameter.
Rogue traders versus value-at-risk and expected shortfall
VAR and ES are ineffective to deter rogue trading
A central limit theorem formulation for empirical bootstrap value-at-risk
In this paper, the importance of the empirical bootstrap (EB) in assessing minimal operational risk capital is discussed, and an alternative way of estimating minimal operational risk capital using a central limit theorem (CLT) formulation is presented.
The validation of filtered historical value-at-risk models
In this paper, the authors examine the problem of validating and calibrating FHS VaR models, focussing in particular on the Hull and White (1998) approach with EWMA volatility estimates, given its extended use in the industry.
Optimal equity protection of Solvency II regulated portfolios
In the context of equity investments, this paper examines the relationship between the cost of acquiring protection (in the form of put option) and the reduction of capital charges that it entails. The paper develops the idea that Solvency II regulations…
Valuing streams of risky cashflows with risk-value models
Based on risk-value models this paper introduces a multi-period approach to the valuation of streams of risky cash flows.
Initial margin with risky collateral
This paper explores the complication of calculating the IM amount requirement when collateral comprises risky assets in a parametric VaR framework. The authors show that the required IM amount can be calculated by solving a quadratic inequality.
Estimation risk for value-at-risk and expected shortfall
This paper provides a detailed analysis of the relationship between approximate VaR (ES) and exact VaR (ES) by finding a linear regression model in which the response variable is the approximate VaR (ES) and the explanatory variable is the exact VaR (ES)…