Risk magazine/Technical paper
Kalibrierung der Laufzeitstrukturen der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten
Der Neueste Stand: Kreditrisiko
The determinants of corporate credit spreads
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are an integral tool used for the management of credit risk by financial institutions. Despite their importance, good models for the determination of CDS spreads, also called corporate credit spreads, are not readily available…
Cash-settled swaptions and no-arbitrage
Brief Communication
Geometric mean variance
Asset Allocation
Counterparty risk and CCDSs under correlation
Hybrid Products
The probability approach to default probabilities
Default estimation for low-default portfolios has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II's internal ratings-based rules. Here, Nicholas Kiefer applies the probability approach to uncertainty and modelling to default…
Market-implied Archimedean copulas
Computations of implied copulas are a central element in producing loss distributions of bespoke portfolios and pricing their tranches. This process is made feasible by the availability of index tranche pricing data. Luigi Vacca shows how it is possible…
Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons
Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…
Contributi al rischio di fattori generici definiti dall'utente
Approfondimenti - Gestione degli investimenti
Rolling credit
In the period from December 2006 to November 2007, the Cutting Edge section saw a slightly increased number of submissions compared with last year, but trends in publications and rejections (only one out of four sees the light of acceptance) show how our…
Factor models for credit correlation
Stewart Inglis and Alex Lipton describe dynamic and static factor models for credit correlation, and show how the static model can be calibrated to the market and used for the pricing of standard and bespoke tranches including tranchelets
Modellierung von Inflation
Der Neueste Stand: Inflation
A time-homogeneous, SABR-consistent extension of the LMM
Riccardo Rebonato proposes an extension of the Libor market model (LMM) that recovers the SABR caplet prices almost exactly for all strikes and maturities. The dynamics of the volatility are chosen so as to be consistent across expiries, to be…
Calibration of PD term structures: to be Markov or not to be
A common discussion in credit risk modelling is the question of whether term structures of default probabilities can be satisfactorily modelled by Markov chain techniques. Christian Bluhm and Ludger Overbeck show that empirical multi-year default…
Calibrazione di tranche CDO con il modello dinamico GPL
Approfondimenti - Derivati di credito
Modelling inflation
Lars Kjaergaard models inflation using a three-factor Gaussian method. This gives a simple description of derivatives linked to inflation and interest rates, and allows for fast evaluation. He then shows how the model can be calibrated
Gamma process dynamic modelling of credit
The existing generation of credit derivatives models is unsatisfactory because they generally contain arbitrage, cannot describe the dynamics of the process, and are hard to extend beyond vanilla products. Martin Baxter has created a new tractable family…
Modelling South African swap spreads
Sponsored Statement
Going downturn
There is much debate regarding the definition of 'downturn' loss given default (LGD). In this article, Michael Barco offers an analytic approach for calculating downturn LGD so that credit risk capital is not underestimated or overestimated
The determinants of corporate credit spreads
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are an integral tool used for the management of credit risk by financial institutions. Despite their importance, good models for the determination of CDS spreads, also called corporate credit spreads, are not readily available…
Calibrating and pricing with embedded local volatility models
Consistently fitting vanilla option surfaces when pricing volatility derivatives such as Vix options or interest rate/equity hybrids is an important issue. Here, Yong Ren, Dilip Madan and Michael Qian Qian show how this can be accomplished, using a…
Going downturn
There is much debate regarding the definition of 'downturn' loss given default (LGD). In this article, Michael Barco offers an analytic approach for calculating downturn LGD so that credit risk capital is not underestimated or overestimated
Loan portfolio value
Using a conditional independence framework, Oldrich Vasicek derives a useful limiting form for the portfolio loss distribution with a single systematic factor. He then derives a risk-neutral distribution suitable for traded portfolios, and shows how…