Scenario analysis
Covid credit outlooks for UK banks vary
Standard Chartered and HSBC have worst downside outlooks relative to their own base cases
Banks aim to close op risk stress test capital gap
Standardising stress drivers could help smooth differences between bank loss estimates
Covid scenarios, pt II: apocalypse how?
Second crowd-sourced scenario exercise reveals polarised views in equities and FX
Podcast: CFM’s Bouchaud on agent-based models and ESG investing
Hedge fund quant, and Risk.net’s new columnist, shares his unique take on markets
Valuing scenarios with real option pricing
Risk managers could use Black-Scholes to help drive strategy, writes René Doff
What is essential is invisible to the eye: prioritizing near misses to prevent future disasters
Near misses represent a primary information source to analyze the operational risk exposure of a company, since they can reveal gaps in the control environment. The model proposed in this paper aims at identifying the most dangerous events that could…
Is trading indicator performance robust? Evidence from scenario building
This paper challenges widely applied trading indicators with regard to their ability to generate a robust performance.
Banks eye post-pandemic shake-up of op risk scenarios
Firms seek better handle on impact of global shocks, and hope to avert regulatory attention
Carbon pricing paths to a greener future, and potential roadblocks to public companies’ creditworthiness
In this paper, the authors introduce a valuation-based approach to estimate how energy transition risk may impact the creditworthiness of public companies globally within the next thirty years.
Don’t let a good crisis go to waste
As supervisory stress tests take a backseat, banks look for new ways to gauge extreme risks
Covid scenarios: finding the worst worst-case
As pandemic trashes historical data, a Risk.net tie-up with Ron Dembo’s new outfit tests promise of polling
Q&A: Ron Dembo on crowd-spotting black swans
Veteran quant argues large groups are better at gauging extreme uncertainty than small teams of experts
As Covid snaps credit models, lenders turn to stress-testing
Banks enlist scenario analysis to bolster creaking default models
Climate risk management – A self-assessment of progress
Due to a combination of increasing social pressure, demands for better disclosure from investors and emerging regulation, companies are increasingly questioning the extent to which they are incorporating climate change into their global risk management…
Quantifying systemic risk using Bayesian networks
Creditworthiness of individual entities may offer an insight into systemic risk of financial markets
ICAAP/ILAAP – Unlocking business value from capital and liquidity assessment
Regulators consider banks’ internal capital adequacy and assessment process (ICAAP) and internal liquidity adequacy assessment process (ILAAP) important tools in managing risk. The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) updated guidance – which came into effect…
Quants bring ‘triptych’ of variables to risk measurement
Risk and portfolio managers at La Francaise and LFIS are squeezing more information out of stress tests
Navigating the impact of climate risk on financial stability
As uncertainty abounds on the impact climate change may have on the industry, financial services firms must best equip themselves for potential regulatory and socioeconomic changes to ensure they maximise the opportunities of embracing new best practices…
Better risk reporting doesn’t need an IT upgrade
By revisiting certain calculations, new insights into risk and profit drivers can be gained, says data scientist
Companies delay climate policy action at their peril
Failure to take immediate action on the proposals set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change could cost approximately $1.2 trillion over the next 15 years in policy risk costs. Oliver Marchand, co-founder of Carbon Delta and executive director of…
Realising opportunities while managing conduct risk
As efforts to transition from Libor to risk-free rates ramp up, Maria Blanco and Nassim Daneshzadeh, partners in PwC’s US and UK financial services practices, discuss two critical and interconnected strategies that are front and centre for PwC clients
Applying existing scenario techniques to the quantification of emerging operational risks
This paper sets out techniques for: (a) identifying systematically emerging threats, their timescales, and interrelationships (eg, feedback loops and domino effects); (b) quantifying operational risks through structured scenario analysis processes that…