Russia-Ukraine conflict
Amundi’s in-house expert keeping watch on Putin, Trump and Xi
Geopolitics expert Anna Rosenberg believes data and probability are key to forecasting market-moving events
Herding behavior in energy commodity futures markets amid turmoil and turmoil-free periods
This paper extends typical research on herding behavior to commodity futures markets, investigating five markets and finding herding behavior during the global financial crisis and at the beginning of the Russia - Ukraine conflict.
Russian loan liquidation lifts RBI’s risk density
Cash parked at sanctioned central bank carries higher capital requirements than original loans
Should trend followers lower their horizons?
August’s volatility blip benefited hedge funds that use short-term trend signals
On geopolitical risk, G-Sibs choose their battles
Conflicts – both existing and threatened – raise concern among banks, but many are still grappling to weave the risk into their frameworks
RBI’s VAR spikes on FX fluctuations
Ruble trouble sends market RWAs up €1.4bn
RBI’s structural FX charges climb on unhedgeable ruble
Trading-book RWAs under the standardised approach have soared 234% since Ukraine invasion
Hedge fund’s bots hunt for ‘non-linear’ trade signals
Boutique investment firm Goose Hollow uses LLMs to scrape thousands of news sources, searching for links that others miss
ENGIE empowers clients globally to decarbonise and address the energy transition
In recent months, energy market participants have faced extreme volatility, soaring energy prices and supply disruptions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, they have needed to identify and mitigate the longer-term risks of the…
Falling T2 balances bode well for eurozone’s stability
Impact of fragmentation would be less severe today than in 2010s, says Marcello Minenna
HSBC, Intesa incorporate 2022–23 downturn into SVAR models
Turbulent past two years implied to be worse than GFC in stressed simulations
Renewable energy generation capacity following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the stock market performance of energy firms: evidence from southern European Union countries
The authors investigate links between renewable energy investment, natural gas shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market performance of energy firms.
RBI’s op risk charges climb 22% on input-series update
Recalibration reverses savings from discontinuation of AMA a year earlier
Geopolitics is harsh terrain for FMIs
Idiosyncratic nature of disputes and flare-ups leaves exchange and infrastructure operators blending metrics with guesswork
Loss of ruble volatility waiver costs UniCredit €2.2bn in RWAs
Lender forced to capitalise FX risk from Russian operations after ECB withdraws key exemption
Clearing members combing rule books after LME lawsuit win
Industry debates whether other CCPs and exchanges would cancel trades if faced with similar crisis
As banks limit FRTB model use, outputs get more volatile
Risk managers say selection of stress window becomes more sensitive if fewer desks are on IMA