Russia-Ukraine conflict
Have CCPs got better at absorbing shocks?
Data suggests most CCPs weathered the Iran-war disruption, but shock frequency is starting to bite
In Iran war, VAR models ease cliff effect on Ice and CME margins
At 105%, EEX – using Span model – saw largest single-day jump compared with those CCPs
Top 10 operational risks for 2026
Industry shares intel on biggest collective threats, as well as remedies and loss gauges
Deutsche Bank CRO’s year of living dangerously
Marcus Chromik explains his approach to geopolitical risk, operational resilience and AI adoption
How geopolitical risk turned into a systemic stress test
Conflict over resources is reshaping markets in a way that goes beyond occasional risk premia
Op risk data: GVA and Nobitex in geopolitical risk strikes
Also: UBS chief a target of third-party data hack, internal bank frauds in Asia. Data by ORX News
Amundi’s in-house expert keeping watch on Putin, Trump and Xi
Geopolitics expert Anna Rosenberg believes data and probability are key to forecasting market-moving events
Examining intersector risk synchronization in the Indian stock market: evidence from a time-varying connectedness approach
The authors investigate volatility spillover across the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and demonstrate how different sectors act as shock absorbers and transmitters.
Buffer stop: Eurex clearing members shunt default fund
Clearing house’s CRO says both members and clients opt to pay more margin instead
BoE warns over risk of system-wide cyber attack
Senior policy official Carolyn Wilkins also expresses concern over global fragmentation of bank regulation
Herding behavior in energy commodity futures markets amid turmoil and turmoil-free periods
This paper extends typical research on herding behavior to commodity futures markets, investigating five markets and finding herding behavior during the global financial crisis and at the beginning of the Russia - Ukraine conflict.
Russian loan liquidation lifts RBI’s risk density
Cash parked at sanctioned central bank carries higher capital requirements than original loans
Should trend followers lower their horizons?
August’s volatility blip benefited hedge funds that use short-term trend signals
On geopolitical risk, G-Sibs choose their battles
Conflicts – both existing and threatened – raise concern among banks, but many are still grappling to weave the risk into their frameworks
RBI’s VAR spikes on FX fluctuations
Ruble trouble sends market RWAs up €1.4bn
RBI’s structural FX charges climb on unhedgeable ruble
Trading-book RWAs under the standardised approach have soared 234% since Ukraine invasion
Hedge fund’s bots hunt for ‘non-linear’ trade signals
Boutique investment firm Goose Hollow uses LLMs to scrape thousands of news sources, searching for links that others miss
ENGIE empowers clients globally to decarbonise and address the energy transition
In recent months, energy market participants have faced extreme volatility, soaring energy prices and supply disruptions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, they have needed to identify and mitigate the longer-term risks of the…
Falling T2 balances bode well for eurozone’s stability
Impact of fragmentation would be less severe today than in 2010s, says Marcello Minenna
HSBC, Intesa incorporate 2022–23 downturn into SVAR models
Turbulent past two years implied to be worse than GFC in stressed simulations
Renewable energy generation capacity following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the stock market performance of energy firms: evidence from southern European Union countries
The authors investigate links between renewable energy investment, natural gas shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market performance of energy firms.