Risk
Allocating and forecasting changes in risk
This paper considers time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components.
EU and UK CCPs dominated by foreign members
Non-domestic clearing members accounted for over 70% of LCH’s and Eurex’s pool in Q3
Capital One’s loan charge-offs surge 54% in Q4
Amount of credit cards and consumer loans getting written off approaches pre-pandemic levels
OTC share of EU gas derivatives surges to 25%
Energy price cap may supercharge flight from ETDs and affect CCPs’ ability to manage risks, Esma warns
BofA’s DVA losses inflated to $193m in Q4
Latest hit is largest since 2020, but still leaves positive result for 2022
RepoClear’s concentration risks see highest rate of increase
LCH's cash bond and repo trade-clearing service has steepest slope of IM and open positions over 2016–22
MMFs’ reverse repos with Fed surged 35% last year
Fidelity-run funds drove 29% of the $601 billion in new trades
IRB risk-weights highest at smallest EU banks – ECB
Lenders with less than €30 billion in assets consistently report lower risk densities than bigger banks across all modelled portfolios
CCPs’ largest members account for almost half IM
Analysis of 30 clearing services shows wide dispersion in concentration risk – with LCH and JSCC leading the pack
JP Morgan nets $1.9 billion bond book gain in swift turnaround
Q4 reversal in fair-value securities powers record quarterly increase in CET1 capital
Client margin for swaps drops to virtually zero at Credit Suisse
Required funds posted to the bank’s US clearing unit totalled $12 at end-2022
Client margin for swaps hits new record at four FCMs
Required funds at all-time high at BofA, Goldman, JP Morgan and Barclays in November as market turbulence persists
Shadow banks grew net repo claims to record $2.1trn in 2021 – FSB
Non-bank intermediaries, led by money market funds, tapped Fed’s reverse repo window as rates began their ascent
ECB ratchets up Pillar 2 charges across top lenders
UniCredit, BNP Paribas, SEB and Swedbank worst-hit in latest SREP round
FSB: third of climate stress tests not tackling physical risk
Six jurisdictions conducted exercises only for transition risk
CME revises estimated worst-case payment obligation
IRS and F&O clearing unit both subject to revision in Q3
Merrill Lynch hoovered up $1.5bn of client margin in October
Required funds for F&O rose 66%, bucking trend across major FCMs
F-IRB captured more of EU banks’ credit risk in H1
Gains mostly accrued from bank-modelled A-IRB portfolios
Rifts widen across EU banks’ trading results
Largest fair-value hits from HFT assets moved further from median in H1
UK banks’ CVA charges ballooned by £8bn in volatile Q3
Bank of England figures show capital requirements at highest since early pandemic readings
Liquidity risk at OCC up 34% in Q3
Internal stress-testing of a clearing member’s portfolio triggered upward revision
Ice Europe made $7.8bn VM call in Q3
Highest cash call on record triggered by higher commodity prices as Europe energy crisis persists
IM at Eurex Clearing’s IRS unit rose again in Q3
Heightened market volatility behind latest increase to record high €50.7bn
US banks’ loss-to-VAR ratios fell in Q3
Largest daily trading losses were on average 84% of forecast, compared with 105% in Q2