Oil price
The relationship between oil prices, global economic policy uncertainty and financial market stress
This paper introduces two models: the first analyzes the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty, gold prices and three-month US Treasury bill rates on oil prices between 1997 and 2020, and the second examines the effects of oil prices and US…
Causality between oil prices and exchange rates: a quantile-on-quantile analysis
This study examines the causal link between the crude oil price and the exchange rate in five major oil-exporting countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the United States) that have recently adopted different exchange rate…
US election scenarios: meltdown fears if poll contested
Crowd-sourced election scenarios show sharp falls and correlation breaks if Trump challenges results
Podcast: should negative oil prices be allowed?
Did negative oil prices signify the market was operating effectively, or that something was wrong?
A positive response to negative oil prices
Overhauling pricing models could reap rewards even if prices don’t cross zero again
Bachelier – a strange new world for oil options
Model tuned to negative prices has implications for pricing, margining and delta hedging
Podcast: Kaminski and Ronn on negative oil and options pricing
The market is gravitating to the Bachelier model as an alternative to Black 76
Shale firms pump hedge books for liquidity lifeline
Lucrative hedge portfolios offer promise of cash but unlocking residual value won’t be simple
Coronavirus rout revives attacks on futures margining
FCMs call for permanently higher margins following “unprecedented” number of breaches
Fuel spikes expected from sulphur cap on shipping
Energy Risk Asia: IMO 2020 will save lives, but also impact entire energy complex
Hedging figures show doubt over US crude export plans
Producers sceptical that better infrastructure will allow US exports to relieve crude pressures