Futures
CME offers basis traders a leg up
New Treasury Link service ‘levels playing field’ in strategy dominated by high-speed players
CFTC accused of ‘double standards’ on compute futures
Duffy questions ‘long review’ of CME’s contract when Kalshi already offers similar product
Basis trade loses its bite as banks move in
Returns on popular hedge fund strategy dwindle to as little as three basis points, while dealers make use of softened capital rules to replicate the trade
Perpetual futures: when expiry disappears, governance is key
Perps solve the futures roll problem, but run market-structure and regulatory risks, warns Vishal Gupta
Have CCPs got better at absorbing shocks?
Data suggests most CCPs weathered the Iran-war disruption, but shock frequency is starting to bite
SpaceX gives CME’s single-stock futures a much-needed boost
New contracts could take off as IPO bolt-on to S&P 500 contracts
RJ O’Brien transfer propels StoneX into top 10 FCMs
Customer funds jump 61% after futures services move across
UBS partners with LGT on ‘tricky’ Vix futures QIS
Swiss bank aims to avoid ‘backtest Olympics’ for strategies at risk of overfitting
AI compute has a governance problem
As exchanges move to launch compute futures, Vishal Gupta argues that the real test is not product innovation, but whether governance can keep pace
Clearing banks pick holes in VAR-based CCP margin models
New models ease cliff effects, but banks say they are less predictable and prone to undershooting
Europe ‘lagging behind’ US in crypto markets
Mica made Europe first mover, but rapid US adoption leaves the region trailing, market participants say
Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
Ice sets up four-way race for Japan’s Tona futures
London joins Osaka, Tokyo and Singapore exchanges in battle for yen rates contracts
Market-makers give mixed verdict as CME Spot+ turns one
Traders encouraged by depth of liquidity despite wider spreads and passive performance qualms
The quiet force steering prediction platforms to regulation
Former Cantor Futures president Richard Jaycobs warns on growth prospects for ‘zero-sum’ market
Eurex short-term rates volumes collapse on Iran volatility
Surging yields, options hedging activity and revamped incentive schemes drive record volumes at Ice
Forecasting Chinese crude oil futures’ volatility: a heterogeneous volatility spillover-conditional autoregressive range model
This paper offers a new model with which to model and forecast the volatility of Chinese crude oil futures.
FCM target residual interest shrinks as customer funds surge
Nine firms hit all-time lows in February across multiple asset classes
Mizuho leads FCM customer fund surge after Iran war
F&O balances jump 51% at Japanese dealer as industry hits fresh heights
How the Iran war wreaked havoc on consensus US rates trades
Hedge fund steepeners, swap spreads and vol-selling strategies were hit as conflict forced stop-outs during March
Eurex dividend futures volumes jump on Iran shock
Turnover triples as investors hedge dividend cuts risk