Forecasting
Zone-wide prediction of generating unit-specific power outputs for electricity grid congestion forecasts
This paper explores various statistical and statistical learning methods, with the goal of adequately predicting the on/off status and power output levels of all power plants within a control zone.
Fake data can help backtesters, up to a point
Synthetic data made with machine learning will struggle to capture the caprice of financial markets
The selection of predictive variables in aggregate hydroelectric generation models
This paper provides a method to identify the best predictive variables and the appropriate predictive indexes for an aggregate hydropower storage forecasting model. To this end, we use an entropy-based approach.
Forecasting Bitcoin returns: is there a role for the US–China trade war?
In this paper, the authors extend the related literature by examining whether the information on the US–China trade war can be used to forecast the future path of Bitcoin returns, controlling for various explanatory variables.
The impact of data aggregation and risk attributes on stress testing models of mortgage default
In this paper, the authors investigate how data aggregation and risk attributes affect the development and performance of stress testing models by studying residential mortgage loan defaults.
US election scenarios: meltdown fears if poll contested
Crowd-sourced election scenarios show sharp falls and correlation breaks if Trump challenges results
Power surge: the value of investing in renewables
Energy market expert investigates ways to forecast future power prices and capture rates in order to value renewables PPAs
Podcast: Dario Villani on managing money with ML
Duality’s CEO discusses key to machine learning success, and the influence of Renaissance’s Jim Simons
Study suggests banks may be better off with simpler VAR models
Non-parametric VAR models perform well in calm markets, but miss the mark in volatile periods
IFRS 9 and the loan loss lottery
As reserves for bad loans balloon, banks grapple with measuring Covid-era credit risk
Volatility spillover along the supply chains: a network analysis on economic links
The analysis in this paper reveals that additional fundamental risk gets transferred along supply chains, and that suppliers are exposed to additional fundamental risk that is not captured by their market beta. Suppliers are therefore exposed to…
Range-based volatility forecasting: a multiplicative component conditional autoregressive range model
This paper proposes a multiplicative component CARR (MCCARR) model to capture the "long-memory" effect in volatility.
Old-fashioned parametric models are still the best: a comparison of value-at-risk approaches in several volatility states
The authors present backtesting results for 1% and 2.5% VaR of six indexes from emerging and developed countries using several of the best-known VaR models, including generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), extreme value theory…
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Quant fund pioneer plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Q&A: Ron Dembo on crowd-spotting black swans
Veteran quant argues large groups are better at gauging extreme uncertainty than small teams of experts
What quants can learn from the Covid crisis
More nowcasting, less backtesting, and strategies that adapt to new regimes: a manifesto from Lipton and López de Prado
Measuring economic cycles in data
This paper determines if enough data is available for forecasting or stress testing, a better measure of data length is required.
Treasurers turn to AI in bid for sharper forecasting
Wider automation could usher in future of ‘hands-free hedging’, but obstacles lurk in data standards and sharing
Credit impairment charge up 22% at StanChart
Higher provisions taken, even as number of stage three loans drops
Ready or not – a low-carbon economy is coming
Government and business must avert disorderly move away from fossil fuels, says Geneva Association’s Maryam Golnaraghi
Quant funds look to AI to master correlations
Machine learning shows promise in grouping assets better, predicting regime shifts
At CIBC, update to loan-loss model lifts credit provisions 38%
Darker economic outlook justified a shift in ECL model weightings
When the data’s not there, expert-led models could help
Missing data is a problem. Expert elicitation taps the knowledge of many, say consultants