Can machine learning help predict recessions? Not really

Artificial intelligence models stumble on noisy data and lack of interpretability

What are the odds of a recession hitting the United States in 2024?

Goldman Sachs places its bet at 15%. The New York Federal Reserve suggests a gloomier likelihood of 69% using a model based on the yield curve, one of the best known indicators of recessions. A group of economists project a 50% chance of a downturn, in a survey by Wolters Kluwer. Polls of CEOs and consumers show 84% and 69%, respectively, braced for recessionary winds in the next 12–18 months.

Quants trying to make sense of these

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to View our subscription options


Want to know what’s included in our free membership? Click here

This address will be used to create your account

Most read articles loading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here