Default risk
Default and recovery correlations - a dynamic econometric approach
Integrating coherences between defaults and loss given default (LGD) is postulated by Basel II. If there is a positive correlation between the two, separate models for each lead to biased estimates for the LGD parameters, and the economic loss is…
S&P looks at PD estimation in a Basel II environment
New S&P report states that there is a negative relationship between probability of default and speculative-grade post-default recovery values.
Default and recovery correlations - a dynamic econometric approach
Integrating coherences between defaults and loss given default (LGD) is postulated by Basel II. If there is a positive correlation between the two, separate models for each lead to biased estimates for the LGD parameters, and the economic loss is…
Intensity gamma
Mark Joshi and Alan Stacey develop a new model for correlation of credit defaults based on a financially intuitive concept of business time similar to that in the variance gamma model for stock price evolution
Structural credit calibration
Damiano Brigo and Massimo Morini introduce first-passage models with time-varying volatility and random default barriers, while illustrating their tractability, exact calibration and economic interpretation. The models' behaviour on Parmalat data prior…
An empirical analysis of equity default swaps (II): multivariate insights
Equity default swaps (EDSs) have attracted much attention recently because of their similarities to credit default swaps on the one hand and American-style digital puts on the other. Particular interest has focused on collateralised debt obligations…
Estimating default correlations using a reduced-form model
Credit risk : Cuttingedge
Maximum likelihood estimate of default correlations
Estimating asset correlations is difficult in practice since there is little available data andmany parameters have to be found. Paul Demey, Jean-Frédéric Jouanin, Céline Roget andThierry Roncalli present a tractable version of the multi-factor Merton…
Mixed default modelling
Structural and reduced-form models are two well-established approaches to modelling afirm’s default risk. Here, Li Chen, Damir Filipovic/ and Vincent Poor develop a new default riskmodelling strategy based on combining these two frameworks in order to…
American regulators release proposed guidance for IRB systems for retail credit exposures
The Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision (The Agencies) have proposed guidelines for Internal Ratings-Based Systems for Retail Credit Risk…
Basel II revised default correlation values reflect industry experience, says Fitch
Basel II revised credit card default correlation values will be crucial guidelines to credit portfolio analysis under the IRB approach, says Fitch Ratings, a rating agency based in New York.
The score for credit
Jorge Sobehart and Sean Keenan discuss the benefits and limitations of model performance measures for default and credit spread prediction, and highlight several common pitfalls in the model comparison found in the literature and vendor documentation. To…
Collateral damage
Credit risk
Correlation evidence
Like ratings, default correlation is an area of fierce industry debate. But any fundamental, long-terminvestor searching for fair value in credit correlation will want to understand what the historical dataactually says.
Correlation evidence
Like ratings, default correlation is an area of fierce industry debate. But any fundamental, long-term investor searching for fair value in credit correlation will want to understand what the historical data actually says. Here, Arnaud de Servigny and…
The road to partition
Applying the ensemble approach developed in these pages last month, Kevin Thompson and Roland Ordovas calculate risk contributions and show how to measure higher-order default dependence using the method of partitions. The results provide tools allowing…
Credit ensemble
Kevin Thompson and Roland Ordovas address the question of how individual counterparties contribute to the total credit risk of a portfolio. They provide an analytic method, new to credit modelling, to estimate all joint default statistics conditional…
Sponsor's article > No cure through the cycle
Some have argued that the antidote for pro-cyclicality in the Basel II capital requirements is the use of 'through-the-cycle' estimates of default and recovery rates. David Rowe argues that, whilethis might mitigate the pro-cyclical impact of the Accord,…
US-based Basel opponents cry "foul" on commercial real estate
Small and medium-sized US banks will be hit hard by the treatment of commercial real estate under the proposed revisions to the Basel Accord, according to Sarah Moore, chief operating officer of the Colonial Bank Group, a regional US bank, at…
Sponsor's article > The role of correlation
David Rowe surveys recent research on the role of correlation between probability of default and recovery rates, as well as among default probabilities.
Credit and credibility
Credit risk modellers have made giant strides, but they still have to convince regulators that they can make the world a safer place.
Loan portfolio value
Using a conditional independence framework, Oldrich Vasicek derives a useful limiting form for the portfolio loss distribution with a single systematic factor. He then derives a risk-neutral distribution suitable for traded portfolios, and shows how…
Loan portfolio value
Using a conditional independence framework, Oldrich Vasicek derives a useful limiting form for the portfolio loss distribution with a single systematic factor. He then derives a risk-neutral distribution suitable for traded portfolios, and shows how…
S&P acquires Default Filter from IQ Financial
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has acquired the Default Filter credit risk management assets from risk management software company IQ Financial Systems.