Credit risk
The wisdom of prudence
ERM in emerging Europe
A multi-state Vasicek model for correlated default rate and loss severity
Correlation between default and recovery has a major bearing on credit risk capital. Rahul Sen shows the effect can be modelled efficiently by allowing multiple loss states in the Vasicek framework. Heavy-tailed distributions result for arbitrary loss…
Risk reallocation
The originate-and-distribute model offered a means for banks to offload credit risk from their balance sheets and distribute it to investors. But Andrew Haldane and Lewis Webber of the Bank of England argue this risk was often passed on to those least…
A multi-state Vasicek model for correlated default rate and loss severity
Correlation between default and recovery has an important bearing on credit risk capital. Here, Rahul Sen shows that the effect can be modelled efficiently by allowing multiple loss states in the Vasicek framework. Heavy-tailed distributions result for…
Confidence intervals for corporate default rates
Rating agency default studies provide estimates of mean default rates over multiple time horizons but have never included estimates of the standard errors of the estimates. This is due, at least in part, to the challenge of accounting for the high degree…
Confidence intervals for corporate default rates
Rating agency default studies provide estimates of mean default rates over multiple time horizons but have never included estimates of the standard errors of the estimates. This is due at least in part to the challenge of accounting for the high degree…
Credit risk modelling
Sponsored Statement
Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons
Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…
Calibration of PD term structures: to be Markov or not to be
A common discussion in credit risk modelling is the question of whether term structures of default probabilities can be satisfactorily modelled by Markov chain techniques. Christian Bluhm and Ludger Overbeck show that empirical multi-year default…