Technical paper
Unexpected recovery risk
For credit portfolio managers, the priority is to properly incorporate recovery rates into existingmodels. Here, Michael Pykhtin improves upon earlier approaches, allowing recovery rates todepend on the idiosyncratic part of a borrower's asset return, in…
Ultimate recoveries
Measuring recovery using the ultimate rate observed at emergence from bankruptcy may be conceptually desirable, but modelling it is difficult.
A false sense of security
Credit portfolio models often assume that recovery rates are independent of default probabilities. Here, Jon Frye presents empirical evidence showing that such assumptions are wrong. Using US historical default data, he shows that not only are recovery…
Ultimate recoveries
Measuring recovery using the ultimate rate observed at emergence from bankruptcy may be conceptually desirable, but modelling it is difficult. Craig Friedman and Sven Sandow tackle the problem by maximising the creditor’s utility function, constructed…
Probing granularity
Basel II
A false sense of security
Credit portfolio models often assume that recovery rates are independent of defaultprobabilities. Here, Jon Frye presents empirical evidence showing that such assumptions arewrong. Using US historical default data, he shows that not only are recovery…
Unexpected recovery risk
For credit portfolio managers, the priority is to properly incorporate recovery rates into existing models. Here, Michael Pykhtin improves upon earlier approaches, allowing recovery rates to depend on the idiosyncratic part of a borrower’s asset return,…
Valuing exploration and production projects
Lukens Energy Group’s Hugh Li sets out an option method for valuing exploration and production projects, using a practical example
Market-implied ratings
There has been much debate over the respective merits of credit ratings and market-based indicators. Ludovic Breger, Lisa Goldberg and Oren Cheyette present a new approach that tries to incorporate the benefits of both approaches.
Correlation evidence
Like ratings, default correlation is an area of fierce industry debate. But any fundamental, long-terminvestor searching for fair value in credit correlation will want to understand what the historical dataactually says.
Overcoming the hurdle
How should capital be allocated to different business lines in a financial institution? ThomasWilson explores this question from an investor's perspective by constructing a statisticalmodel that measures the risk of individual business types.
Operational risk modelling: aggregating loss distributions using copulas
Capturing the dependence structure between business line/risk event types is an extremely important step for any serious attempt to model operational risk. In this article we show how this can be achieved by using a powerful statistical technique known…
Backwardation and contango change indicators for seasonal commodities
In the first part of this two-part article, Svetlana Borovkova introduced two indicators for detecting changes between backwardation and contango market states. Here, in the second part, she applies the indicators to seasonal commodities and introduces a…
Questions of error
Consider the following two, difficult, questions. How should a financial institution allocate capital to different businesses? How should a financial institution be valued? The first question is a subject for the senior management of an institution. But…
Market-implied ratings
There has been much debate over the respective merits of credit ratings and market-based indicators. Ludovic Breger, Lisa Goldberg and Oren Cheyette present a new approach that tries to incorporate the benefits of both approaches. Starting with agency…
Overcoming the hurdle
How should capital be allocated to different business lines in a financial institution? Thomas Wilson explores this question from an investor’s perspective by constructing a statistical model that measures the risk of individual business types. The…
Correlation evidence
Like ratings, default correlation is an area of fierce industry debate. But any fundamental, long-term investor searching for fair value in credit correlation will want to understand what the historical data actually says. Here, Arnaud de Servigny and…