Fog of war: the struggle to manage geopolitical risk

Financial firms ponder how to factor the Ukraine conflict and wider global unrest into stress-testing

Soldiers from a nuclear state marching on a neighbour. Soaring food and energy prices. A trade war between the world’s largest economies.

Financial firms must factor these ratcheting global tensions into their risk management strategies. But doing so is easier said than done.

Two closely followed measures of geopolitical risk – the BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator and NYU Stern’s Geovol index – illustrate the challenges facing banks. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the BGRI

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