2012: another year of living dangerously

It is always possible to envisage threats to economic and political stability, but the next 12 months look likely to harbour many unhappy surprises, says David Rowe


Having started my career as a would-be economic forecaster just six weeks before the first successful Arab oil embargo in October 1973, I have seen a good deal of political and economic upheaval over the years. Never before, however, have I felt a time to be fraught with as many fundamental uncertainties as we face today. A whistle-stop tour of the globe will illustrate my point.

In the Middle East we have the uncertainty unleashed by the Arab Spring – the latest chapter in the longer-running

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