Stress testing
Covid loan losses exceed 2019 CCAR projections
CECL accounting likely responsible for discrepancy
Fed missed chance to curb dividends, say ex-supervisors
Instead, changes to stress capital buffer and TLAC rules would allow larger payouts
US banks still fret about cutting liquidity buffers
Fed instructions to banks to run down LCR undermined by governance rules, other liquidity metrics
As Covid snaps credit models, lenders turn to stress-testing
Banks enlist scenario analysis to bolster creaking default models
Fed defies coronavirus to push ahead with stress test
US diverges from Europe and forces banks to juggle CCAR with real-life operational burden
Measuring economic cycles in data
This paper determines if enough data is available for forecasting or stress testing, a better measure of data length is required.
Bankers say discount window is imperfect fix for UST woes
Further changes advocated to ensure Treasuries are used in US bank liquidity buffers
CECL muddies stress tests for US banks
Accounting forecasts differ from Fed’s CCAR scenarios; banks seek middle way to avoid upfront capital hit
The Fed’s stress capital buffer: relaxed but not relaxing
Bankers welcome key methodology improvement, but final rule could still curb dividends
Funds try to predict behaviour of mystery investors
New EU rules on liquidity stress-testing force fund managers to hunt out clues on investors
Splits emerge over EBA’s stress test 2.0
Experts question utility of separate bank leg that won’t feed into capital requirements
Capital buffers edge lower at systemic US banks in 2019
CET1 excess above institution-specific amounts slid 228bp at median G-Sib
Fed could postpone stress buffer beyond CCAR – experts
Delays prompt speculation that new rules will only be known after stress-test results in June
CCAR more severe than EU stress tests
Real GDP decline greater for US banks under Fed tests than for EU firms grilled by the EBA
Fed’s stress tests to gauge banks’ leveraged loan risks
CLOs to suffer “severe corrections” under 2020 scenario
EU’s 2020 stress tests are toughest to date
Real GDP projected to contract –4.3% over three-year scenario horizon
Supervisory stress testing for central counterparties: a macroprudential, two-tier approach
This paper examines the role of supervisory stress testing of central counterparties (CCPs). A key message is that the design of supervisory stress tests (SSTs) should be tailored to CCPs’ roles, risk profiles and financial structures.
Show don’t tell: BoE’s climate stress test dilemma
Making the test easier to run could come at the expense of building risk management capacity
As business mix shifts, Eurex bulks up its default fund
Clearing house will raise charge to 9% from 7% as stress tests signal need for a fatter fund
Esma trains beam on investment fund risks
Officials look to regulatory reporting for better grasp of fund leverage and liquidity
Stress buffer will not upend Citi’s capital plans
CET1 capital at lowest level since Q3 2013
Fed’s rush to complete stress buffer likely to unnerve banks
Quarles wants to include it in 2020 CCAR cycle, making bank capital planning difficult
Review of 2019: shaken, not stirred
The market survived a cocktail of hits. But is a hangover on the way?
Four UK banks improve resilience to stress tests compared with 2018
Aggregate CET1 capital ratio headroom over hurdle rate improves by 50 basis points